Summary
- Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl said Bitcoin (BTC) may already have passed its bottom if the Federal Reserve (Fed) does not carry out additional rate hikes.
- The report said Bitcoin's bear market can be viewed through the four-year cycle theory or as a macro asset shaped by broader economic conditions.
- Under the four-year cycle view, the report pointed to the potential for further declines based on a historical average drawdown of about 80% and said a bottom could form in September or October. By contrast, it said Bitcoin is already a mature asset from a macroeconomic perspective.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl said Bitcoin may already have passed its bottom if the Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates further and economic growth remains intact.
In a report published on July 22 titled "Bitcoin: Four-Year Cycle or Macro Asset?" Pandl said views on Bitcoin's bear market generally fall into two camps: the "four-year cycle" theory and the view that Bitcoin trades as a macro asset shaped by broader economic conditions.
Under the four-year cycle framework, Bitcoin could still face further declines because its average historical drawdown has been about 80%. On that basis, the bottom could form in September or October.
Grayscale, by contrast, said Bitcoin has matured into an asset influenced by the macroeconomic environment like other major assets. If the Fed refrains from additional rate hikes and economic growth holds up, Bitcoin may already have moved past its bottom.
JH Kim
reporter1@bloomingbit.ioHi, I'm a Bloomingbit reporter, bringing you the latest cryptocurrency news.