Bitcoin Tests $67,000 Resistance as CLARITY Act Uncertainty, Middle East Tensions Cloud Rebound

Uncertainty around the CLARITY Act, a US crypto market-structure bill, has resurfaced as tensions in the Middle East intensify, testing the durability of Bitcoin’s rebound. Analysts say the broader upward trend remains intact for now, but the near-term focus is whether Bitcoin can retake resistance at $67,000 and hold support near $64,000 on any pullback.

As of 6:21 p.m. on July 23, Bitcoin was trading at $65,733 on Binance’s USDT market, down about 0.52% from a day earlier. On Upbit, it was trading at the equivalent of about $69,700. The kimchi premium, which tracks the price gap between overseas and South Korean exchanges, stood at minus 1.37%.

Oil, Treasury Yields Add Pressure as US-Iran Tensions Deepen

The US has deployed additional special operations forces and fighter jets to the Middle East, stoking concern that tensions with Iran could escalate into a broader war. Rising oil prices and elevated long-term Treasury yields are weighing on appetite for risk assets, including stocks and cryptocurrencies.

The Wall Street Journal reported on July 23 that the US military moved special operations forces from domestic bases to the Middle East over the past week and forward-deployed fighter squadrons across the region. The White House said President Donald Trump had made clear that “all options are always on the table.” Tensions had already intensified after an Iranian attack on a US military base in Jordan killed three American service members.

Trump wrote on Truth Social on July 22 that if Iran attacks ships in the Strait of Hormuz with rockets, missiles or drones, the US would bomb and destroy “one bridge or one power plant in or near Tehran.” US forces are now in their 12th day of airstrikes against Iran, which has continued attacking vessels while asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Middle East tensions are also feeding into financial markets. Brent crude rose above $95 a barrel during the session, while West Texas Intermediate traded above $86. The 30-year US Treasury yield stayed above 5% for a 12th straight trading day, reflecting concern that inflation could accelerate again.

Traders are again pricing in the possibility of rate hikes. CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed on July 23 that the probability of a July rate increase climbed to 33.7% from about 10% last week, while the odds of a September hike rose to 76.9%. If higher oil prices driven by Middle East tensions feed through to inflation, the Federal Reserve could face renewed pressure to keep policy tight.

Tariff risks are also seen capping the market’s upside. With a global 10% tariff set to expire on July 24, the Office of the United States Trade Representative is preparing new tariff measures under Section 301 of the Trade Act, according to the report. With geopolitical tensions and tariff risks emerging at the same time, markets are likely to track oil, rates and major corporate earnings for clues on direction.

ETF Inflows Resume, but Spot Volume Stays at 62% of Annual Average

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds posted net inflows of $75.5 million last week, and inflows have continued since then. Hopes for negotiations around the CLARITY Act recently supported buying, but policy uncertainty has widened again after Democrats objected to ethics provisions for public officials in a revised bill.

The rebound may have limited staying power because spot Bitcoin trading remains subdued. Bitfinex said Bitcoin has rebounded 15.9% from this month’s low, but 30-day trading volume is still only 62% of the annual average and average daily spot turnover remains around $2.3 billion.

Selling pressure from both long-term and short-term holders has eased, and demand for downside hedges has also faded. That has yet to translate into strong spot buying. A retest of $68,000, ETF flows and trends in futures open interest will likely determine the next move, Bitfinex said.

On-chain data also points to a market that remains close to neutral despite the recent rebound. Glassnode said the price rise in the face of negative headlines suggests marginal selling pressure has eased significantly. Bitcoin is now nearing $69,000, the breakeven level for buyers from the past five months.

Recent buyers are showing neither overheated optimism nor aggressive selling. Exchange inflows have declined, but there is still no clear shift to net outflows, leaving the market in a neutral supply-and-demand zone.

The rebound may also need support from a recovery in Bitcoin dominance, or market share, to continue. Bitcoin Vector said rebounds led by Bitcoin have tended to develop into relief rallies, while periods when it failed to reestablish leadership were marked by higher volatility.

Ethereum is leading the market for now, but that alone may not be enough to restore structural stability. According to TradingView, Bitcoin dominance stood at 59.3% on July 23, below the 60% mark.

$67,000 Resistance Retest in Focus; Support Near $64,000 Key

Analysts say the immediate question is whether Bitcoin can break back above resistance at $67,000. On a pullback, support near $64,000 will be a key level to watch.

Alex Kuptsikevich, an analyst at FxPro, said Bitcoin pulled back after testing last month’s high near $67,000, but the uptrend that began earlier this month remains intact. A move above $68,000 could strengthen upside momentum.

Even if the market turns lower, a pullback to $64,000 would still amount to a relatively mild retracement, he added.

Razan Hilal, an analyst at Forex.com, said Bitcoin is retesting $67,000 resistance after rebounding more than 15% from this year’s low. Given the size of the short-term rebound, upside momentum could slow in this area.

A confirmed break above $67,000 could open the way to $70,000 and then $74,000. If Bitcoin falls back below $63,000, however, the risk of another test of this year’s low would increase, with $60,000 and $58,000 emerging as major support levels.

Over the medium term, holding above $60,000 remains the threshold for the bullish case. Alejandro Arrieche, a senior crypto analyst at FXEmpire, said the buy signal stays intact as long as Bitcoin remains above $60,000 on the weekly chart.

Similar signals in the past have been followed by strong bull runs within a few months, he said. In the short term, Bitcoin could rise toward resistance at $74,000, though current market conditions may make a sustained move beyond that level difficult over the medium term.

Kang Min-seung, Bloomingbit reporter minriver@bloomingbit.io