‘Next Week Will Be Scary’: Market Veteran Says Samsung, SK Hynix Face Pivotal Moment

South Korea’s National Pension Service, a dominant force in the domestic stock market, turned a net buyer this month and concentrated its purchases on SK Hynix ahead of the chipmaker’s earnings release. The buying has raised expectations for improving flows into major semiconductor shares, even as investors had worried that the resumption of portfolio rebalancing would unleash heavy mechanical selling.

Korea Exchange data show pension funds, including the National Pension Service, were net buyers of 68.4 billion won on the Kospi from the start of July through July 24. That marks a sharp reversal from the first half, when they were net sellers every month by amounts ranging from several hundred billion won to more than 2 trillion won. Net-selling days accounted for more than half of all trading sessions in each month of the first half, but fell to six this month.

SK Hynix topped pension funds’ buying list. They made net purchases of 425.8 billion won in the stock this month, making it the most-bought name for a second straight month. SK Innovation followed at 224.7 billion won, then S-Oil at 174.4 billion won and DB Insurance at 109.4 billion won. On the sell side, SK Square ranked first at 575.7 billion won, followed by Samsung Electro-Mechanics at 313.6 billion won and Samsung Electronics at 111.5 billion won.

SK Hynix, a favored pick of the National Pension Service, is due to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 29 and is widely expected to post another blowout quarter. Brokerage consensus compiled by the Korean media outlet put revenue at 84.0597 trillion won and operating profit at 64.0889 trillion won. That would easily surpass the company’s full-year 2025 operating profit of 47.2 trillion won. Combined with first-quarter results, first-half operating profit would reach 100 trillion won.

Kim Dong-won, head of research at KB Securities, said expanding HBM production has pushed supply of conventional memory close to its limit. As long-term supply agreements with big tech companies increase, the share of revenue tied to AI data centers could climb as high as 70%, he added.

Analysts also say SK Hynix’s profitability is moving beyond the usual boundaries of manufacturing. Its second-quarter operating margin is projected at 75% to 77%, more than 15 percentage points above TSMC’s 60.3%, which would leave the Korean chipmaker ahead for a third consecutive quarter. Its financial position is also strengthening sharply, with net cash set to expand further. The company is scheduled to pay first-half productivity incentives on July 30 equal to 150% of monthly base salary.

With earnings approaching and share-price volatility rising, market commentators are urging investors to keep their focus on fundamentals. A video posted on the YouTube channel Economy No. 1 carried the headline: “A huge turning point is approaching for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, and next week will be truly scary.”

In the video, Cha Young-joo, head of the Wise Economy Institute, said the recent share declines tied to single-stock leveraged ETF volatility and labor-union issues reflected only short-term supply-demand jitters and psychology. Share-price swings during a period of rising operating profit are not a reason for fear. If stocks of companies with growing earnings fail to rise, that would shake the basic theory of equity investing, he said, urging investors to view the market rationally.

Cha said SK Hynix’s earnings outlook remains solid enough that some brokerages are forecasting annual operating profit in the 60 trillion won range. With the stock undervalued on valuation metrics, this earnings release could become the decisive trigger for a rebound, he said.

He also addressed SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won’s remarks about the possibility of a stock split at SK Hynix and speculation about acquiring an Intel plant. Cha said both point to strong confidence that the semiconductor shortage will continue through 2030. At a minimum, he said, they offer a hopeful signal that concerns about oversupply could ease over the next one to two years.

On investment strategy, Cha said Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are still only at the beginning of a period of rising earnings. Investors with cash on hand would be better off accumulating shares through staggered buying during the current pullback rather than waiting on the sidelines, he said.

Kim Ye-rang, Hankyung.com reporter yesrang@hankyung.com