JPMorgan Says Lower Odds of Clarity Act Passing in 2026 Are Negative for Crypto

JPMorgan said fading prospects for the U.S. crypto market structure bill known as the Clarity Act to pass in 2026 are weighing on the market’s medium- to long-term outlook.

CoinDesk reported on July 30 that JPMorgan wrote in a report a day earlier that the longer passage of the Clarity Act is delayed, the greater the risk that gains from tokenization and blockchain-based applications will be absorbed by traditional financial-market infrastructure instead of flowing to public blockchains.

Negotiations between Republicans and Democrats over the bill’s ethics provisions and stablecoin yields are currently deadlocked. CoinDesk said prediction markets now put the odds of the Clarity Act passing this year at 37%. JPMorgan views the reduced likelihood of passage in 2026 as a negative for the crypto market.

Jefferies, another global investment bank, said in a report last month that substantial hurdles still remain before the Clarity Act can be enacted in final form.

JPMorgan also said some provisions in the Clarity Act could deter institutional investor participation. Under the bill, some tokenized securities and derivatives could fall outside the jurisdiction of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Anti-money-laundering rules applied to those products could also be looser than those imposed on traditional financial firms.