Clarity Act Left Off US Senate Floor Schedule; Odds of Passage This Year Fall to 17%

The Clarity Act, a US cryptocurrency market structure bill, was left off the Senate floor schedule on Aug. 6.

Cointelegraph reported that the bill was not included on the Senate’s floor agenda that day. Senate Republican leader John Thune had recently said he wanted the chamber to take up the Clarity Act this week.

The biggest constraint is time. Congress is set to begin a five-week recess next week.

When lawmakers return in September, they will face a packed agenda that includes the federal budget. With the November midterm elections approaching, debate on the Clarity Act could be delayed, according to assessments from both inside and outside the industry.

Several Democratic lawmakers have also publicly opposed the bill. Senator Elizabeth Warren recently said she supports legislation to regulate crypto, but not the Clarity Act.

“The crypto industry needs a clear regulatory framework, but any bill must guarantee investor rights and the stability of the financial system,” Warren said. “The Clarity Act falls short in preventing conflicts of interest, protecting consumers and reducing systemic risk.”

The odds of the Clarity Act passing this year have also dropped sharply. On prediction market platform Polymarket, the probability of the bill passing by year-end stood at 17% on Aug. 6, down 10 percentage points from 27% a week earlier.