US-Iran Hormuz Deal May Still Be Undone by Tehran Hard-Liners

Arab mediators are concerned that Iran’s hard-liners may refuse to abide by any US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the Wall Street Journal reported on August 6.

Citing mediators, the newspaper said Iran’s negotiating team accepted a proposal over the weekend that would split traffic through the strait, routing inbound vessels near Iran and outbound vessels through Oman. The talks became more complicated after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps demanded clearer terms on Iran’s role and the benefits it would receive.

Mediators said Iranian negotiators have become more candid about the limits of their ability to enforce any deal. They are also under intense pressure to secure immediate economic gains from an agreement.

Iran’s negotiators also told mediators that the Revolutionary Guard has gained support at home after defending against US attacks and could resume attacks on ships if the terms of a deal are not favorable enough.

Conservative US media outlets have pointed to a power struggle inside Iran as a reason the negotiations have failed to advance. Iran’s diplomat-led negotiating camp is clashing with the hard-line Revolutionary Guard, which appears to hold real power.

The Journal’s report offered a similarly bleak outlook, saying any agreement Iranian diplomats reach with the US may not bind the military hard-liners, who could act on their own.

The newspaper said the adversarial dynamic between negotiators and hard-liners has kept past US-Iran agreements from remaining binding and is casting a shadow over the current diplomatic push.

It added that Iran is constantly balancing retaliation for damage, deterrence against further US attacks and the need to address its economic difficulties through negotiations. Even so, the paper said the hard-liners appear to have seized the initiative.

As evidence, it cited an episode shortly after the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in June to end hostilities, when Iranian forces attacked a ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz. At the time, Iran’s military said the vessel had not followed a route designated by Tehran.

Regardless of whether they are in the negotiating camp or the hard-line camp, Iranian officials are now focused on securing full control over transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Associated Press reported on August 7 that President Donald Trump may have to do something uncharacteristic — compromise — to reach a deal with Iran and reopen the strait.

The US has carried out airstrikes around the waterway in an effort to force Iran to give up control, but Tehran still retains the capacity to attack ships passing through it.

Elliott Cohen, who served as counselor of the State Department under President George W. Bush, told AP that Trump divides the world into winners and losers and that compromise would make him look like a loser. That image would be difficult for him to bear, Cohen added.

Trump’s own remarks suggest he is not yet prepared to make concessions to Iran. David Schenker of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said mounting economic pressure could push Trump toward compromise over the strait and that the president appears to have hinted at his thinking on resolving the crisis.

Ko Jung-sam, Hankyung.com reporter jsk@hankyung.com