Zaluzhnyi Outpaces Zelenskiy in Ukraine Trust Polls, Leads in Runoff Matchup

Two opinion polls in Ukraine showed higher trust in Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the country’s ambassador to the UK and a political rival of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, than in the president.

On August 8, Ukrainian polling firm Rating released results of a survey conducted on August 5-6 among 1,000 adults nationwide, excluding Russian-occupied areas.

In a trust survey of leading public figures, the combined share of respondents who said they “fully trust” or “mostly trust” each figure was highest for Zaluzhnyi at 68%. Kyrylo Budanov was next at 62%, followed by Zelenskiy at 59%. Recently dismissed former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov scored 58%, while newly appointed Commander-in-Chief Mykhailo Drapatyi was at 56%.

The order reversed in the distrust measure. The combined share of respondents who said they “completely distrust” or “mostly distrust” Zelenskiy was the highest at 38%, compared with 21% each for Zaluzhnyi and Budanov.

Asked whom they would vote for if a presidential election were held soon, 25.2% chose Zelenskiy, putting him in first place. Zaluzhnyi followed at 16.7%, ahead of Fedorov at 12.5% and Budanov at 7.9%. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

A similar result emerged in an in-person survey conducted by the Social Research Center, or Socis, from July 28 to August 2 among 2,000 respondents. That poll also had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Among respondents who said they “fully trust” a figure, Zaluzhnyi ranked first at 27.8% and Fedorov was second at 26.8%. Zelenskiy was sixth at 18.0%. The gap widened in a trust index that weighted each trust-response category. Fedorov ranked first at 63%, followed by Zaluzhnyi at 61%, while Zelenskiy was ninth overall at 42%.

In the presidential preference survey, Zelenskiy led with 17.8%, narrowly ahead of Zaluzhnyi at 17.1%. Fedorov followed at 10.5%.

The results shifted sharply in hypothetical head-to-head runoffs, reflecting Ukrainian election law, which sends the top two finishers to a second round if no candidate wins an outright majority in the first round. Zaluzhnyi drew 47.4%, far ahead of Zelenskiy’s 24.2%. In a separate hypothetical runoff against Fedorov, Zelenskiy again trailed, taking 24.7% to Fedorov’s 43.4%.

Zelenskiy took office after winning the presidential election in May 2019. His term was due to end in May 2024, but he has remained in office because no election was held under martial law declared after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Zaluzhnyi emerged as a national hero in the early stages of the war as commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces. Zelenskiy dismissed him in February 2024 after disagreements over how the war should be fought and later appointed him ambassador to the UK.

Fedorov, who successfully led drone warfare targeting Russia before his sudden dismissal last month triggered political backlash against Zelenskiy, is also emerging as a dark horse in Ukrainian politics.

Shin Yong-hyun, Hankyung.com reporter yonghyun@hankyung.com