US July CPI Seen at 3.3%; Odds of September Fed Rate Hike Fall to 46%
JH Kim
Summary
- Kalshi traders expect the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for July to rise 3.3%.
- Weak employment data and rising U.S. Treasury yields have lowered the odds of a September Fed rate hike to 46% from 67% a week earlier.
- Markets see a hotter-than-expected CPI strengthening rate-hike expectations and adding pressure to the bond market, while a softer reading would bolster bets on a pause.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Kalshi traders expect the annual increase in the U.S. consumer price index for July, due on Wednesday, to come in at 3.3%, Walter Bloomberg reported on August 10.
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September fell to 46% from 67% a week earlier as weak employment data offset rising U.S. Treasury yields.
Markets see two possible outcomes. A hotter-than-expected CPI reading could revive rate-hike bets and weigh on the bond market. A softer reading could bolster expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady.
JH Kim
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