Oxford Economics Sees July US PCE Inflation at 3.6%, Fed to Hold Rates Steady This Year
JH Kim
Summary
- Oxford Economics expects the July headline PCE price index to rise 3.6% from a year earlier.
- That would be 0.1 percentage point lower than the 3.7% increase in the PCE price index in June.
- Oxford Economics expects the Fed to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged for the rest of this year, citing slower services inflation and limited signs of labor-market overheating.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, likely cooled slightly in July.
Walter Bloomberg, citing Oxford Economics, reported on August 13 that the U.S. headline PCE price index is projected to rise 3.6% in July from a year earlier. That would be 0.1 percentage point below the 3.7% increase in June. The July PCE report is due later this month.
Oxford Economics expects the Fed to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged for the rest of the year, citing slower services inflation and few clear signs of overheating in the labor market.
JH Kim
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