Bitwise’s $1.3 Million Bitcoin Forecast Over Next Decade May Be Too Optimistic
Summary
- Bitwise said Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $1.3 million by 2035 if it captures 25% of the store-of-value market.
- CoinDesk said forecasts for Bitcoin above $1 million depend on assumptions that it takes part of gold’s market capitalization and attracts institutional money from sources such as global pension funds.
- The outlet said Bitwise’s long-term price forecast may be too optimistic because inflows into Bitcoin could be limited by the availability of relatively safe, high-yield assets such as long-term US Treasuries.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Crypto asset manager Bitwise has projected that Bitcoin could reach $1.3 million within the next decade, but that forecast may be overly optimistic, CoinDesk reported.
In an analysis published on Aug. 13, CoinDesk said the case for Bitcoin reaching $1 million ultimately rests on assumptions that the token captures part of gold’s market capitalization or draws trillions of dollars from institutional investors such as global pension funds. Bitwise previously said Bitcoin could climb to $1.3 million by 2035 if it captures 25% of the store-of-value market.
The outlet said that projection does not fully account for the opportunity cost of investing in Bitcoin instead of other assets. Inflows into Bitcoin could be limited if relatively safe assets offering high yields, such as long-term US Treasuries, remain available, it added.
Bitwise estimates that institutional investors worldwide manage $100 trillion to $200 trillion in assets, and that even a 1% allocation to Bitcoin could support its long-term price outlook.
JH Kim
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