US Says Hormuz Oil Flows Rebounded to 9 Million Barrels a Day, Up to Five Times Private Estimates

The US government says crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to about 9 million barrels a day, but private ship-tracking data show a much lower figure.

Reuters reported on August 13 that US Energy Secretary Chris Wright recently said the seven-day average volume of oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz had climbed to about 9 million barrels a day through coordination between the US military and Gulf allies. Including volumes moved by pipeline and through export facilities, total Middle East crude flows reach about 15 million barrels a day.

Kpler, a commodities analytics firm, reported far lower volumes. Crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 2.77 million barrels a day in the week beginning July 27 and fell to 1.74 million barrels a day in the week beginning August 3. The highest level since the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28 was 6.98 million barrels a day in the week beginning June 29.

Exports from the broader Middle East also remained below the US government's estimate. According to Kpler, crude exports from the region were 9.53 million barrels a day in the week beginning August 3, while the four-week average stood at 12.26 million barrels a day. LSEG Oil Research also estimated Middle East crude exports at 9.33 million barrels a day for the first 12 days of August.

Import data also suggest flows have not yet returned to prewar levels. Kpler said imports of Middle Eastern crude rose to 13.27 million barrels a day in July, but that was still well below the 18.71 million-barrel daily average in the three months before the Iran war.

The discrepancy of 3 million to 5 million barrels a day between the US government's figures and private tracking data has fueled debate in the market. Reuters columnist Clyde Russell wrote that a likely explanation is that the US Navy may have double-counted the same cargo during ship-to-ship transfers.

Whether supply has truly recovered will become clearer in import data from individual countries. If 15 million barrels a day are leaving the Middle East, as the US government says, major importing countries should record higher arrival volumes within about six weeks.