Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Face 6% Average Loss, With No Signs of Mass Selling

Bitcoin short-term holders are sitting on unrealized losses of about 6% relative to their average purchase price, but limited realized losses suggest the market has yet to enter a full-scale capitulation phase.

In an Aug. 17 newsletter, on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. wrote that the average cost basis for Bitcoin short-term holders is about $67,300, compared with a spot price near $63,200.

MVRV, a metric that shows the average profit-and-loss position of short-term holders, is about 0.94 and has remained below the baseline of 1 for 98 consecutive days. That indicates short-term holders have been in a loss position on average for more than three months.

SOPR, which tracks realized profit and loss during actual sales, is closer to break-even. Its seven-day moving average stands at about 0.996. Adler wrote that short-term holders are realizing losses, but the scale is limited, making current conditions closer to a controlled loss phase than to capitulation.

Adler identified $59,300 as a key support level for Bitcoin. As long as the token holds above that level, the current bearish structure has not been significantly damaged. If it falls below $59,300, the risk of a deeper correction toward the next major downside zone at $49,200 could increase.

He added that a recovery above $67,300, the average purchase price for short-term holders, along with SOPR holding above 1, could signal a reversal in investor sentiment.