New York Fed Raises Third-Quarter US Growth Forecast to 2.3%
JH Kim
Summary
- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said it raised its forecast for U.S. GDP growth in the third quarter to 2.3%.
- The upward revision was driven by stronger-than-expected building permits and the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index.
- The New York Fed put the probability of third-quarter growth falling between 1.1% and 3.4% at 50%, drawing attention to how the U.S. economy’s growth path could affect monetary policy.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York raised its forecast for U.S. gross domestic product growth in the third quarter to 2.3% from 2.14%.
Walter Bloomberg reported on August 21 that the upward revision was driven by stronger-than-expected building permits and the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index.
The New York Fed put the probability of third-quarter growth falling between 1.1% and 3.4% at 50%. It estimated the 80% probability range at 0.0% to 4.5%.
The higher forecast is also drawing attention to how the U.S. economy’s growth trajectory could influence monetary policy in the coming months.
JH Kim
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