Samsung Seen Generating $432 Billion for Shareholder Returns Over 3 Years, With Anthropic IPO as Catalyst

KB Securities said on August 24 that an expanded shareholder return program could mark a turning point in the re-rating of Samsung Electronics Co., and that Anthropic's expected October initial public offering could also benefit the company.

Kim Dong-won, head of research at the brokerage, said on August 21 Samsung announced additional shareholder returns of 90 trillion won to 110 trillion won ($64.8 billion to $79.2 billion) from remaining funds under its policy of returning 50% of free cash flow for 2024 through 2026. Based on this year's projected operating profit of 380 trillion won ($273.6 billion), he estimated the additional remaining funds at 110 trillion won ($79.2 billion).

That implies another 80 trillion won ($57.6 billion) in future shareholder returns after subtracting a planned third-quarter cash dividend of 30 trillion won ($21.6 billion) from the total 110 trillion won. The dividend consists of a regular quarterly payout of 2.45 trillion won ($1.76 billion) and a special cash dividend of 27.55 trillion won ($19.84 billion).

Beginning Monday, August 24, Samsung is also set to start buying back 15 trillion won ($10.8 billion) of treasury shares for employee compensation, Kim added. The daily purchase limit is 7,321,653 shares, and the buyback period will run for three months.

Kim said Samsung would likely share in October the direction and timing of additional return measures, including cash dividends, share buybacks and share cancellations. He added that the company is expected to formally disclose the exact size and structure in January 2027.

Samsung is also expected to announce in January 2027 its next three-year shareholder return policy covering 2027 to 2029.

If Samsung maintains its policy of returning 50% of free cash flow in the next three-year plan, the company could generate at least 600 trillion won ($432 billion) in resources for shareholder returns over the period, Kim said. That would be more than four times the scale of the current 2024-2026 plan.

He said the simultaneous expansion of earnings growth and shareholder returns would mark a turning point in Samsung's valuation, helping shift the stock from a simple cyclical play to a long-term compounding investment asset.

Kim also cited Anthropic's planned October IPO. He said the artificial intelligence company is pursuing a $2 trillion listing and could raise more than $100 billion, accelerating the buildout of AI infrastructure. Samsung, which currently has the largest share of memory supply for Anthropic's AI infrastructure, also has a strong chance of producing Anthropic's in-house AI chips using its 2-nanometer process, making it a likely beneficiary of the IPO.

Kang Kyung-ju, Hankyung.com reporter qurasoha@hankyung.com