Kalshi Traders Put 56% Odds on US 10-Year Yield Ending Year Above 4.75%

The US Treasury has expanded its bond buybacks, but traders are increasingly betting that long-term Treasury yields will remain elevated through year-end.

CNBC reported on Aug. 24 that traders on prediction market Kalshi see a 56% chance the US 10-year Treasury yield will end the year at 4.75% or higher. The odds of the yield rising above 5% were priced at 27%.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently increased long-term Treasury buybacks in an effort to push yields lower. But after falling briefly following the announcement, yields resumed climbing, fueling doubts about the policy's effectiveness.

The US fiscal deficit, national debt and inflation concerns are all adding upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields. That has reinforced the view that buybacks alone may not be enough to lower yields on a sustained basis.