Bitcoin Faces Key Resistance at $83,200 as Trend Reversal Remains Unconfirmed

Bitcoin has climbed back above the average cost basis for short-term holders after its recent rebound, but it is still too early to say the broader downtrend has reversed, an on-chain analyst said.

In a newsletter published on Aug. 25, Axel Adler Jr. wrote that Bitcoin had regained $68,200, the average purchase price for short-term holders, and moved above two key moving averages. While the short-term market structure has recovered strongly, the broader trend has not yet confirmed a reversal.

Bitcoin has rebounded about 35% from its $59,000 low to around $80,000. That rally has brought many short-term holders who entered the market recently back into profit.

Adler identified the $68,000 to $69,000 range as a key support zone. If Bitcoin holds that area, short-term holders would remain in profit and the current recovery could continue. A break below it, however, could push some short-term holders back into losses and increase selling pressure.

On the upside, Adler pointed to $83,200 as the key resistance level. A sustained move above $83,200 would be the first strong signal that market conditions are changing. If Bitcoin is pushed back from that level, the existing bearish structure may remain intact.

He added that the market is improving, but has not yet fully shifted into a risk-on phase.