Bitcoin Slides to $77,000, but Prediction Market Gives 78% Odds of Reaching $84,000 First

Bitcoin slipped into the $77,000 range on concern that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, but prediction-market traders still favor further gains. Continued inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds for a ninth straight trading day are also supporting the view that institutional demand is underpinning prices.

Blockchain-based prediction market Myriad showed on Aug. 28 that 77.8% of bets in a contract asking whether Bitcoin would reach $84,000 or $55,000 first favored $84,000. The share betting on a drop to $55,000 was 22.2%.

Bitcoin climbed as high as $81,478 on Binance before falling to $76,888. The move followed Jackson Hole remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh that highlighted inflation risks, fueling concern over a September rate increase. In CME Group's interest-rate futures market, the implied probability of a September hike rose to 55.7% from 35.4%. In crypto derivatives markets, about $481 million of positions were liquidated, including more than $360 million of long bets.

Even so, odds on the prediction market barely budged, with institutional money continuing to flow through spot ETFs. SoSoValue data showed U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for nine straight trading days through Aug. 27. Net inflows for August exceeded $3 billion, the largest monthly total this year.

Technically, Bitcoin is at a crossroads between extending its rally and slipping into a pullback. The daily relative strength index was about 69.7, close to the 70 level commonly viewed as overbought. That suggests the market is nearing short-term exhaustion, though it has not yet entered a deeply overheated phase.

Chart analysis points to $73,670 to $75,157 as a key support zone. Buying interest in that range could preserve the upward trend, while a break below it may deepen the correction. On the upside, Bitcoin needs to regain the $81,000 to $82,500 range to challenge $84,000 and push to fresh highs.