Bitcoin Options Market Signals Fading Upside as $80,000-$90,000 Looms as Hurdle
Summary
- Bitcoin climbed sharply this week, but expectations for further gains and volatility in the options market are fading.
- Implied volatility (IV) for short- and medium-term options has fallen quickly from recent highs and is now only about 10% above levels from two weeks ago, while the increase in medium- and long-term options has slowed to less than 2%.
- About 40% of month-end options positions are concentrated in the $80,000-$90,000 range, which could create pressure as Bitcoin tries to break above that level.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin climbed sharply this week, but the options market is showing weaker expectations for further gains and future volatility.
Adam, a researcher at crypto options analytics firm Greeks.live, wrote on X on August 31 that expectations among major options investors have fallen noticeably as the pace of the market's advance slows.
Implied volatility, or IV, for short- and medium-term options has dropped quickly from recent highs and is now only about 10% above levels from two weeks ago, he said. For medium- and long-term options, the increase over the same period has narrowed to less than 2%, signaling lower expectations for future volatility.
He also said about 40% of options expiring at month-end are concentrated in the $80,000 to $90,000 range. That price band has also accumulated heavy trading volume, which could create pressure on any upside breakout.
Minseung Kang
minriver@bloomingbit.ioBlockchain journalist | Writer of Trade Now & Altcoin Now, must-read content for investors.