Bitcoin Stuck in $75,000-$82,000 Range as ETF Flows, September FOMC Set Up Next Move

Wintermute, a crypto market maker, said Bitcoin's short-term direction remains unclear, with $75,000 and $82,000 emerging as the key levels to watch.

In a post on X on September 1, the firm wrote that the near-term outlook is hard to call and that the key question is whether buying in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds can be sustained.

Bitcoin surged 23% over the past week and briefly rose above $81,000, but fell below $78,000 after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. It still finished the week up 0.10%, preserving most of the advance. After repeated rallies stalled at $82,000, Wintermute identified that area as major resistance.

Institutional money continues to support prices. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $924 million of net inflows last week, while spot Ether ETFs took in $816 million. Still, spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $202 million of net outflows on August 28, snapping a nine-session streak of inflows.

In a bullish scenario, Wintermute said follow-through buying by underallocated investors could fuel further gains. In a bearish case, deleveraging could send Bitcoin into a pullback toward $75,000.

The firm identified $75,000 and $72,000 as key support levels. If Bitcoin breaks below $72,000 on a weekly closing basis, the risk of further declines could rise, it said.

Wintermute cited the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 15-16 as the market's next key catalyst. Before then, the U.S. employment report due on September 4 could significantly shift expectations for a September rate increase, which have risen to about 62%.