[Analysis] Bitcoin Faces Spot Selling Pressure Around $81,000 as U.S. Jobs Data, Long-Term Yields Set Direction

Bitcoin's leverage overhang has eased, but spot selling around $81,000 is still limiting further gains, QCP Capital said. The cryptocurrency's next move will likely be driven by U.S. employment data and the direction of long-term Treasury yields.

In a market report released on Sept. 4, the digital-asset trading firm said Bitcoin's main constraint is no longer excessive long leverage but spot selling clustered near $81,000. Bitcoin traded in a range of about $76,700 to $81,500 this week, with two rallies rejected in the $81,000 to $86,000 zone.

Leverage in the futures market remains relatively subdued. Bitcoin futures open interest is hovering near a five-month low, while open interest backed by crypto collateral accounts for only about 11% of the total. Funding rates have also remained below 10% on an annualized basis.

Spot flows, by contrast, are returning. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded net outflows of $202 million on Aug. 28 and $236.5 million on Sept. 1, before reversing to net inflows of $101 million on Sept. 2 and $730.9 million on Sept. 3. BlackRock's IBIT alone took in $454 million on Sept. 3.

QCP Capital said it was significant that Bitcoin still failed to close higher despite ETF net inflows of $731 million. In its view, that shows substantial sell orders remain near recent highs.

Markets are also watching the U.S. August jobs report due later on Sept. 4. Consensus forecasts call for nonfarm payrolls to increase by about 50,000 and for the unemployment rate to come in at 4.1%. A weaker-than-expected reading could reduce expectations for a September rate increase, while a stronger report could reinforce the outlook for tighter policy.

QCP Capital said long-term Treasury yields may matter more for Bitcoin's next move than the policy rate itself. Over the next two weeks, the more important question is whether the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield can stay below its August high, rather than where the federal funds rate stands.

On Sept. 9, the U.S. Treasury will carry out its first purchase after raising the cap on long-dated bond buybacks to at least $4 billion from $2 billion. QCP Capital said the next test will be whether that step can materially affect liquidity in the long-end Treasury market and government bond yields.