BlackRock Says Focus Shifts to Inflation After Strong U.S. August Payrolls, With Energy Prices a Key Risk
Summary
- BlackRock said U.S. Treasury yields rose after August nonfarm payrolls came in stronger than expected.
- BlackRock said the Fed would likely hold rates steady at its September meeting if inflation continues to cool.
- BlackRock identified rising energy prices feeding into core inflation as the key risk, and said even a 25-basis-point rate increase by the Fed would likely have only a limited impact on stocks and credit markets.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data for August has shifted market attention to next week’s consumer price index report and the Federal Reserve’s September rate decision.
Walter Bloomberg reported on September 4 that Jeff Rosenberg, a portfolio manager at BlackRock, said U.S. Treasury yields rose after U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, topping market expectations.
Rosenberg said the Fed would likely hold rates steady at its September meeting if inflation continues to cool. He cited rising energy prices feeding through to core inflation as the bigger risk.
He also said a 25-basis-point increase in the benchmark rate would likely have only a limited impact on stocks and credit markets. One basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
JH Kim
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