Bitcoin Nears $80,000 as US August CPI Set to Decide Whether Crypto Rebound Holds

Aug. 11 August CPI Due at 8 p.m.

Forecast to Rise 0.4% From a Month Earlier

Focus on Core Inflation and Rate-Hike Risk

With Bitcoin nearing the $80,000 mark, the US consumer price index for August is emerging as a key test of whether the rebound in digital assets can continue. A softer inflation reading could ease concerns about further rate hikes and lift investor sentiment. A hotter-than-expected number, however, may prompt the market to surrender some of its recent gains. The report is also due ahead of the Sept. 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting and stands to influence views on monetary policy.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August CPI at 9:30 p.m. Korea time on Sept. 11. Data compiled by Investing.com on Sept. 5 show the market expects headline CPI to rise 3.4% from a year earlier and 0.4% from a month earlier. The annual pace would match July, while the monthly increase would accelerate from 0.1%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is forecast to rise 0.2% from a month earlier, unchanged from July.

The key question is whether higher energy prices spread into other goods and services. Even if headline CPI posts a larger increase, stable core inflation would support the view that underlying price pressures remain limited. Still, some see upside risk to the data. Continuum Economics forecasts August headline CPI and core CPI to rise 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, from the prior month, citing higher energy and lodging costs. Its core CPI estimate is 0.1 percentage point above the market consensus.

Within the Federal Reserve, officials are also treating the inflation report as a key variable in the rate decision. Governor Christopher Waller said in a Sept. 3 speech that he would support holding rates steady if progress on inflation continues. He added that he would consider a rate increase if inflation comes in high. For the crypto market, the immediate question is less about hopes for rate cuts than whether additional tightening can be avoided.

Digital-asset prices have already risen sharply from early last month. On Binance's Tether market as of 5:50 p.m., Bitcoin traded at $79,762 and Ether at $2,492.35. Solana stood at $105.14, while XRP changed hands at $1.4147. Compared with last month, the four tokens were up 24.0%, 30.9%, 44.6% and 36.7%, respectively. All four also advanced over the past 24 hours, though Bitcoin rose just 0.18% and remained below $80,000.

If CPI comes in below expectations and core inflation stays stable, conditions could become more supportive for digital assets. Lower odds of a rate increase would likely push down US Treasury yields and the dollar, reducing the burden of holding risk assets. That would support a scenario in which Bitcoin secures a foothold above $80,000 and Ether and Solana extend their gains. Even so, prices have already climbed sharply, making it difficult to conclude that a strong rally would resume on an in-line result alone.

If core CPI also exceeds forecasts, by contrast, concerns about additional tightening could intensify and trigger profit-taking. Price swings may widen further if leveraged long positions are liquidated at the same time. Beyond the CPI reading itself, the market is watching how Treasury yields, the dollar and interest-rate futures move immediately after the release. More than the level of inflation alone, the gap versus expectations and the outlook for the Fed are likely to determine crypto's short-term direction.