Summary
- Walter Bloomberg reported, citing prediction market Kalshi, that the probability of a Fed 25-basis-point hike in September was 52%.
- The same gauge put the probability of a rate hold at 48%.
- Upcoming inflation data will be a key factor in the rate decision at the September FOMC meeting.
The probability that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in September has risen above 50%.
Walter Bloomberg reported on September 7, citing prediction market Kalshi, that the odds of a 25-basis-point rate increase by the Fed in September were priced at 52%. The probability of the central bank holding rates steady was 48%. One basis point equals 0.01 percentage point.
U.S. President Donald Trump has been urging Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to cut interest rates, arguing that elevated borrowing costs are hindering economic growth.
Inflation data due before the Federal Open Market Committee's September meeting will be a key factor in the rate decision.
JH Kim
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