Summary
- Reports said the war between the US and Iran could continue until early 2029, near the end of President Trump’s term.
- Views are emerging that commodity prices will remain strong unless a global recession hits.
- The US Defense Department and Iran’s leadership are strengthening deployments and preparations on the assumption of a prolonged war.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Commodity Rally May Continue for Now
The risk is rising that the seven-month war between the US and Iran will become a prolonged conflict. Some White House officials see it lasting until early 2029, at the end of President Donald Trump’s term. That is also fueling views that commodity prices will remain strong unless the global economy falls into recession.
The Wall Street Journal reported on September 9, citing people familiar with the matter, that senior White House aides have said privately that the war with Iran could continue throughout Trump’s presidency. Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio were among those who discussed the war with Trump in the Oval Office and the Situation Room, taking into account the possibility that Iran would continue to resist.
Those discussions also covered a scenario in which the war lasts until January 2029, when Trump’s term ends. The private talks took place even as Trump has insisted the war would end as soon as the November midterm elections are over.
Trump had previously said the war would end soon. But the Journal said the private acknowledgment by some of the president’s closest aides that the military conflict could last for years undercuts his public assurances.
The Pentagon has also begun preparing for the possibility of a long war. The Journal reported that the Defense Department plans to extend the deployment of some air-defense units in the Middle East without a fixed end date. Officials are also preparing to send the III Marine Expeditionary Force to the region this fall. Air Force fighter squadrons in the Middle East are shifting from time-limited temporary deployments to rotational deployments designed to maintain a steady level of forces.
Iran’s leadership is also preparing for a prolonged conflict. A senior Iranian official told Bloomberg that the country is bracing for a more intense war. Iran’s leaders view a war with the US as a threat to the country’s survival and believe they have no choice but to keep fighting even if the economic pain worsens.
Han Myeong-hyeon, Hankyung.com reporter wise@hankyung.com
Korea Economic Daily
hankyung@bloomingbit.ioThe Korea Economic Daily Global is a digital media where latest news on Korean companies, industries, and financial markets.