OPEC Cuts 2026 Oil Demand Growth Forecast Again, Says Iran War Won’t Shrink Consumption

OPEC has again lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, citing the strain of a prolonged war in Iran and high crude prices, while stopping short of predicting a decline in consumption from a year earlier.

Reuters reported on September 11 that OPEC, in its monthly report released a day earlier, projected global oil demand growth of 380,000 barrels a day in 2026. The latest revision marked the fifth straight month that OPEC has lowered its demand outlook.

Even after the repeated downgrades, OPEC still expects annual oil consumption to increase. The group’s view is that although the Iran war has driven up energy prices and added to economic pressure, the shock is not severe enough to push demand into contraction.

That puts OPEC at odds with the International Energy Agency. The IEA expects global oil demand to decline in 2026 from a year earlier. OPEC, by contrast, has continued to trim its growth forecast while still calling for an increase of 380,000 barrels a day.

The gap between the two outlooks reflects differing views on how much the Iran war and high oil prices will weigh on consumption. Under OPEC’s forecast, oil demand would slow but continue to grow. If the IEA’s view proves correct, the market would move into a period of declining demand.

OPEC was more upbeat on demand in 2027. In its latest report, the group raised its forecast for global oil demand growth that year, suggesting it expects demand to recover after a short-term slowdown.

Markets are now watching whether OPEC will lower its 2026 forecast further. If the Iran war drags on and high prices lead to weaker consumption, the gap between OPEC and IEA projections could narrow.