Iran Directly Targets US Warships, Raising Risk of Wider Hormuz Escalation

Iran has repeatedly launched missile attacks directly at US warships, including a US aircraft carrier, sharply raising the risk of an expanded US-Iran war. The strategy appears aimed at breaking the stalemate by increasing Washington’s military costs in the Strait of Hormuz after US naval blockades and sanctions squeezed Iran’s oil exports and broader economy.

The Wall Street Journal reported on September 9 that Iranian forces had fired missiles at US warships at least three times over the past week. An aircraft carrier was among the targets. The attacks were more direct than the tactics Iran had used against the US Navy since the war began. Iran also carried out a large-scale missile strike on US forces stationed in Jordan on September 9.

The latest attacks also appear to have had a greater chance of hitting their targets than before. Iran used maneuverable warheads, and US Central Command said the ships evaded the attacks. US officials are concerned Iran may have improved its ability to strike ships with help from Russia or China.

If a US warship were actually hit, strong American retaliation would be difficult to avoid, increasing the chances that full-scale war resumes. Direct attacks on warships mark a substantial escalation from Iran’s recent strikes on merchant vessels or on relatively less sensitive US facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan. Iran kept targeting US warships even after the US attacked Iranian tankers.

Mounting economic pressure appears to be driving Iran’s escalation. Nineteen US Navy vessels have been deployed for blockade operations, effectively choking off Iran’s oil exports. New US sanctions have also tightened pressure on the financial system, sending the rial sharply lower. Mark Sievers, a former US ambassador to Oman, said Iran was under enormous pressure from the blockade and sanctions and felt it had little choice but to escalate.

Iran’s goal appears to be less about confronting US military power head-on than about making the current situation harder for Washington to sustain. The Journal said the US can destroy missile launchers and clear mines, but Iran can keep threatening warships and commercial vessels, forcing the US to continue depleting its already dwindling stockpile of missile interceptors. Tehran is also seeking to pressure Washington to recalculate the cost of retaliation and the risks of escalation after each attack.

Iran has been launching fast-flying medium-range ballistic missiles from multiple locations inside the country during this campaign. Officials said the missiles use advanced technology and can maneuver toward moving targets in flight, making them more threatening than Iran’s previous weapons.

Alice Gower, a partner at London-based political risk advisory firm Azure Strategy, said Iran could benefit even from the risks tied to a successful strike on a US warship. Damage to a US vessel could rattle financial markets and Gulf states, while President Donald Trump would have to decide ahead of the midterm elections whether to carry out a costly retaliation or risk appearing weak. Either way, Iran stands to gain, Gower said.

Kim Dong-hyun, Hankyung.com reporter 3code@hankyung.com