Trump’s Clout Seen Holding After US Midterms; South Korea Urged to Speak Up

Seminar Hosted by the Korean American Chamber of Commerce USA

'US Midterm Election Outlook and Response Strategies for Korean Companies'

Kim Dong-seok, Head of the Korean American Voters Council

'America First Will Continue Beyond Trump'

Hyunjung Jeh, KEI Senior Fellow

'If Companies Stay Silent, Only US Firms Benefit'

"Donald Trump’s power will not suddenly evaporate after the midterm elections," Hyunjung Jeh, a senior fellow at the Korea Economic Institute of America, said at the seminar.

South Korea should prepare for a Trump presidency that could use tariffs and presidential powers over diplomacy and national security aggressively while clashing with Congress, Kim Dong-seok, head of the Korean American Voters Council, said.

Even if Democrats win control of the House in the November US midterm elections, Trump is poised to continue wielding executive power aggressively, speakers at the seminar said. They also argued that the US push toward America First industrial policy and a broader rightward political shift will persist. To minimize potential damage, Korean companies investing in the US need to make their voices heard with both the administration and Congress, while Korean Americans should broaden their contacts with political leaders.

A seminar titled "2026 US Midterm Election Outlook and Response Strategies for Korean Companies" was held on Sept. 10 at the Marriott hotel in Teaneck, New Jersey. It was jointly organized by the Consulate General of the Republic of Korea in New York, the Korea International Trade Association and the Korean American Chamber of Commerce USA, or KOCHAM. The event was intended to analyze Trump’s midterm election strategy, review trends in US trade policy and examine how conditions could change after the vote. Attendees included Consul General Kim Sang-ho, KOCHAM Senior Executive Vice Chairman Kwak Do-young, who is also head of LG Electronics’ North America business, Baek Ji-min, head of KITA’s New York office, Englewood Cliffs Mayor Park Myung-keun, and executives and staff from KITA and KOCHAM member companies.

Kim spoke on "The 2026 Midterms and the Final Two Years of the Trump Presidency." The Korean American Voters Council, which he founded in 2013, serves as a bridge to more than 200 US federal lawmakers and aides by regularly conveying issues affecting the Korean American community.

Democrats have a slim chance of retaking the House, Kim said, adding that US politics would then shift into 2028 presidential election mode. He said it was far from certain Democrats would win the White House.

Kim outlined a scenario in which Democrats win 222 to 223 House seats and reclaim the chamber, while Republicans retain the Senate with 51 to 52 seats. In that outcome, Trump’s power would not simply weaken but change form. His leverage as a legislative president would diminish, while his power as an executive president — one who issues orders, enforces policy, vetoes legislation and pursues litigation — could grow stronger.

Trump’s aggressive campaign schedule is another variable. Kim said Trump had indicated he would campaign nonstop across 35 districts. While the outlook still favors Democrats, Kim said hearing Trump’s speeches, including a $5,000 pledge, made him wonder whether Republicans might even keep the House.

Regardless of the election result, America First policies planted by Trump will continue, Kim said. The tolerance the US once showed the rest of the world is fading, and that trend will persist whether or not Trump remains in power. For Korean Americans, he said, another concern is that the racially charged current associated with Trump could worsen further. He added that Democrats need to retake the House, even by a narrow margin.

Kim also argued that the US rightward shift could continue for a considerable period. He pointed to a widening fundraising gap between Republicans and Democrats. Among the top 20 donors to each party, total giving to Republicans is four times that of Democrats, he said. However uncomfortable that may be, he said, the odds favor a continued move to the right in US politics.

Even if a Democratic House becomes more assertive, tariff pressure will not fade quickly, in Kim’s view. Democrats could intensify oversight of the administration through budget reviews, legislation, hearings and subpoenas. But the president would still retain substantial unilateral authority over tariffs, sanctions, diplomacy and national security. As congressional lawmaking becomes harder, he said, more weight could shift to the use of existing laws and executive orders.

Those changes could directly affect countries heavily exposed to US policy, Kim said. This midterm election will not determine the end of Trump’s power. Instead, it will shift that power from a legislative center of gravity to an executive one. South Korea, he said, needs to watch trade closely. Rather than relying on the White House or any single branch of the administration, Seoul should build multilayered networks connecting the Senate, the House, state governments, companies and civil society. He also said Korean companies should deepen ties with local political leaders in states such as Michigan, Alabama, Georgia and Texas, where their US investments are concentrated.

Jeh followed with a presentation on "Changes in US Trade Policy." Trump’s trade policy is difficult to predict even in the near term, she said, adding that Trump himself may not know what comes next.

Jeh identified China as the main reason the WTO-centered trading order has broken down. Since joining the WTO in 2001, China has continued to expand under its own distinct system, she said. China can obstruct decision-making within the WTO, and that has led the US to abandon the multilateral trading system it once worked hard to build. The world is now in an era of industrial policy, she said, with countries returning to a period of fending for themselves.

Competition with China is fundamentally different from the Cold War with the Soviet Union or the rise of Japan in the 1980s, according to Jeh. China is an opponent in a different weight class, she said, with enough strength to make the US feel real pressure. The current moment is an inflection point in determining how to contain a new and hard-to-define China. Even so, she said, it will not be easy for the US to maintain intense pressure on China.

For Korean companies, tariffs remain the most immediate variable. By export value, about 50% of South Korea’s exports to the US are subject to Section 232 tariffs, while about 20% are affected by Section 301 tariffs. The scope of tariffs could also widen to cover derivative products containing automobiles, semiconductors and critical minerals, as well as copper and aluminum.

Jeh said Korean companies need to take a more active role in the US policy process. In the US, companies help shape policy and laws, she said. If Korean firms do not speak up, outcomes will favor only American companies.

She also called for lower tariffs on imported factory equipment. The many machines shipped into US plants are assets invested in America, she said, so imposing tariffs on them is inappropriate. South Korea faces high tariffs on intermediate and capital goods, she added, and tariff cuts or special measures are needed.

New York = Hwang Jung-soo, Correspondent, hjs@hankyung.com