After the Petrodollar, the ‘Compute Dollar’: Why the US Is Betting on Crypto

"The stage for dollar dominance is shifting in the AI era"

"As the price of providing technology, the US is entrenching a dollar stablecoin ecosystem in the Middle East and building a new digital dollar payment network"

We live in a dollar-based world. Travelers use dollars abroad. Countries buying crude oil and raw materials route transactions through the dollar. Investors buying overseas stocks do the same. When the won-dollar exchange rate swings, import prices and corporate costs move with it. The Bank of Korea held 69.5% of its foreign-exchange reserves in dollars at the end of last year.

But the backdrop to dollar dominance is changing. The dollar's share of global foreign-exchange reserves fell to 57% in the first quarter of 2026 from 71% in 1999. China, once a major buyer of US Treasuries, cut its holdings to $633.4 billion in June 2026 from about $1.3 trillion in 2013.

Those figures may suggest that US monetary dominance, like that of the Netherlands or Britain before it, is nearing the end of its run. Yet the US is preparing the next stage of dollar dominance rather than its decline. The idea is to extend the dollar's reach from oil to artificial intelligence and from physical trade to digital transactions. The concept has been dubbed the "compute dollar."

The idea is to supply US-led graphics processing units and data centers to the world, then tie payments for the AI products and services built on that infrastructure to the dollar or dollar-pegged stablecoins. The Center for Strategic and International Studies proposed the concept in December 2025. It is not official policy. But the foundations are being laid as investment in AI infrastructure and the institutionalization of dollar stablecoins advance at the same time.

◆From the petrodollar to the "compute dollar"

AI computing power emerges as a new strategic asset

To understand the power of the US dollar, it helps to look at oil. A large share of the crude needed to run the global economy was traded in dollars, and countries that wanted to buy oil first had to secure dollars. That created a powerful channel for dollars to spread throughout the world economy.

After the 1970s, the system became even more entrenched as ties between the US and major oil producers deepened. That structure is commonly known as the petrodollar. The dollars earned by oil-exporting countries were invested in dollar assets including US Treasuries or flowed into global financial markets. Oil transactions created a circular system through which dollars moved through international trade and finance.

The key was the creation of a structure in which the world kept needing dollars to trade oil.

Now the center of gravity in the global economy is shifting. Saudi Arabia is pushing yuan settlement for crude sales, while central banks are reducing their holdings of US Treasuries. That has revived talk of the dollar's decline. The energy market is also moving away from oil, while AI is emerging as a new layer of economic infrastructure. If oil powered industry and transport after the Industrial Revolution, then compute - the processing power that runs AI - is becoming a new foundation of production in the digital economy. That is why securing GPUs and data centers has itself become a source of economic power.

Terry Duffy, chairman and chief executive officer of CME Group, called computing, the backbone of the digital economy, the new oil of the 21st century. Every AI model training run, every transaction settlement and every data-processing task depends on computing resources. Those resources are rapidly becoming an asset class in their own right.

Trabue Bland, senior vice president for futures markets at Intercontinental Exchange, said the computing market has evolved just as quickly as AI has moved from research labs and university campuses into one of the most important engines of the global economy. The world urgently needs a globally accepted pricing mechanism and risk-management tools for that market, he added.

◆From GPUs to data centers

Embedding dollars in AI infrastructure

The shift is beginning in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other countries that amassed vast wealth from oil are now pouring money into AI and data centers. Backed by large oil and gas revenue and relatively low energy costs, they are attracting AI data centers, expanding related infrastructure and accelerating efforts to build their own AI ecosystems. The goal is to become the world's third major AI power after the US and China. According to IMARC Group, the Middle East AI market is projected to surge to $150 billion by 2033 from $4.6 billion in 2024.

Saudi Arabia is moving to build AI capacity directly. The kingdom's sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund, launched AI company HUMAIN in 2025. The plan is to build an in-house ecosystem spanning AI models, data centers and cloud infrastructure.

At the same time, the US-centered AI technology ecosystem is expanding into the Middle East. MGX, an AI investment firm in the UAE, launched the AI Infrastructure Partnership with BlackRock, Microsoft, Nvidia and xAI to invest in AI data centers and power infrastructure. The project could mobilize as much as $100 billion. In that structure, Middle Eastern sovereign capital joins US big tech and global financial capital as investors in AI infrastructure.

Microsoft has invested in UAE-based AI company G42 and is expanding AI and cloud infrastructure in the country. In effect, US cloud and AI technology and Nvidia's advanced GPUs are being paired with Middle Eastern oil wealth.

The US government has stressed protections for American technology and national-security standards as it allows exports of advanced AI semiconductors to the Middle East. A 2025 AI agreement between the US and the UAE included the UAE's plan to invest $1.4 trillion in the US over 10 years, along with commitments to meet security standards designed to prevent diversion or leakage of advanced US technology. The message is that Washington intends to tightly control leadership over the technology ecosystem even as it permits exports of advanced AI chips to the region.

In the payments layer that supports that process, dollar stablecoins are emerging as a new link.

◆Stablecoins, the dollar payment network for the AI era

Stablecoins are digital currencies with fixed prices. They are pegged one-to-one to the dollar or other real-world assets. That means issuers must hold reserve assets such as US Treasuries, gold and dollars so they can meet redemption requests from users seeking cash.

Stablecoins can become an internet-based dollar payment network that moves dollars across borders around the clock without relying on the traditional banking system.

The Middle East is an important base for the expansion of this new dollar payment network. The UAE is fostering the digital-asset industry, including dollar stablecoins. As stablecoins tied to the dollar's value, such as Tether's USDT and Circle's USDC, gain a foothold in the region's digital-asset market and payment infrastructure, the foundation for circulating dollars on blockchains is widening.

That creates a link between yesterday's oil-based dollar system and today's AI economy. Middle Eastern oil wealth is increasingly flowing into US GPUs, cloud infrastructure and data centers, while the digital economy built on that technology is increasingly likely to connect to dollar stablecoins. In that scenario, buying Nvidia semiconductors or AI services from OpenAI and Gemini would require dollar stablecoins approved by the US Treasury. Stablecoin issuers buy US Treasuries and other assets for reserves. Just as oil once created demand for dollars, compute could become a new foundation for dollar demand in the AI era.

◆A $40 trillion debt load weakening dollar dominance

Major stablecoins currently hold mostly US Treasuries as collateral. Tether's USDT and Circle's USDC are the best-known examples. Tether held about $141 billion of US Treasuries as of the first quarter of 2026, enough to rank among the world's top 20 holders. That is more than South Korea, Germany and Saudi Arabia. Circle held about $65 billion to $74 billion, putting it roughly in the 25th to 30th range globally, on par with countries such as the Netherlands and Australia.

As stablecoins emerged as major buyers in the Treasury market, the US government began bringing them into the regulatory system. It enacted the GENIUS Act in July 2025 and in 2026 moved to draft detailed implementation rules. The law encourages issuers to invest most reserve assets in short-term Treasuries such as T-bills and repurchase agreements backed by Treasuries. As the stablecoin market grows, reserve assets rise with it, increasing demand for short-term US government debt. The US Treasury says the two companies have increased their holdings of short-term Treasuries by $70 billion since 2022.

The burden of defending dollar dominance is growing as fiscal strain collides with instability in the Treasury market. US government debt stood at $40.0775 trillion as of Aug. 27, 2026, according to the Treasury Department. Interest costs alone exceed $1 trillion. The Wall Street Journal reported that nearly one out of every five federal revenue dollars is now spent on interest payments. The yield on the 30-year Treasury has hovered around 5.27%, a high level not seen in about 19 years since just before the 2007 global financial crisis.

In that environment, dollar stablecoins are attracting attention as a tool that can create a new source of demand for dollars. As use of dollar-linked digital currencies increases, the need to hold and transact in dollars rises around the world. At the same time, issuers must hold matching reserves to meet redemption requests. If a large share of those reserves flows into short-term US Treasuries, stablecoin growth could both expand demand for dollars and channel funds back into the US government bond market.

That helps explain why the US is focusing on stablecoins. At a time of persistent fiscal deficits, they could secure a new buyer base for Treasuries while expanding the parts of the digital economy where dollars are used.

◆A Bitcoin standard?

The US strategy for digital financial dominance does not end with using stablecoins to absorb Treasury supply. Alongside efforts to circulate dollars in digital form, the US is also showing signs of trying to secure Bitcoin as a national strategic asset.

The Trump administration established a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" in March 2025 through an executive order. The system put the US Treasury in charge of managing government-held Bitcoin in one place and transferring Bitcoin acquired through seizures and forfeitures into the reserve. That marked a shift toward treating Bitcoin not simply as a private virtual asset, but as a sovereign strategic asset the state may hold over the long term.

Lawmakers are also trying to lock that approach into statute. The Reserve Modernization for America Act, or ARMA, introduced in May 2026 by Representative Nick Begich and others, would create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve within the Treasury and consolidate Bitcoin held by the federal government. Bitcoin placed in the reserve could not be sold, exchanged or pledged as collateral for at least 20 years. The bill would also require a proof-of-reserve system under which holdings are cryptographically verified and disclosed every quarter.

The financing method is the notable part. The bill aims to avoid raising new taxes. It calls for studying ways to buy Bitcoin directly by reclaiming maturing reserve assets held by the Federal Reserve, or accounting surpluses, including funds that may have entered the bond market through the stablecoin ecosystem. That would effectively pull money away from funding US Treasuries and redirect it into a volatile asset, which could prove controversial. For now, however, the measure has only been referred to the House Financial Services Committee and has not become law.

Under the gold standard, gold was the core asset backing the value of money. In a new digital order, dollar stablecoins and Bitcoin could play separate roles. One would widen the circulation of dollars. The other would allow the state to hold a scarce digital asset directly. Some observers describe that as the possible start of a digital gold standard or a new Bretton Woods system. But the US has not designated Bitcoin as official collateral for the dollar or as a final settlement asset. It is too early to say a Bitcoin standard has been established.

Closer Look

The opening phase of digital dominance

The US is once again trying to reshape the playing field to preserve dollar dominance. Until now, it has reinforced the dollar's reserve-currency status through the gold standard, the petrodollar system and SWIFT, the US-led international payments network. Now it appears to be trying to defend that dominance by taking control of the digital-asset ecosystem.

Dollar dominance is more than monetary power. It is one of Washington's strongest tools for projecting power globally. A clear example came during the war in Ukraine, when Russia was cut off from SWIFT. The US showed the world that blocking dollar settlement alone can deal a near-fatal blow to a country's economy.

But that destructive power has also produced a backlash. China, BRICS countries and Middle Eastern oil exporters, alarmed by the risk that their economies could be paralyzed if they crossed Washington, have accelerated efforts to reduce reliance on the dollar and exploit cracks in the traditional dollar alliance.

The Middle East in particular is responding not only to the weaponization of the dollar, but also to the global shift toward cleaner energy and the long-term end of the oil era. The region is racing to convert vast oil wealth into AI and data centers before the value of its hydrocarbon resources fades, in an effort to secure independent technological sovereignty. But that ambition requires advanced US semiconductor technology. In return for providing that technology, the US is entrenching a dollar stablecoin ecosystem in the Middle East and building a new digital dollar payment network.

Kim Tae-rim, Hankyung reporter tae@hankyung.com