Plaee CEO Calls Prediction Markets a ‘P2P Financial Market,’ Sees $1 Trillion in Volume by 2030 [Coin Interview]

"Prediction markets are expanding the range of things that can be priced. In that they turn collective expectations into a real-time signal, they are closer to an information layer."

Leon Okun, chief executive officer of Plaee, made the remarks in an interview with Bloomingbit on Sept. 11. "The fundamental concept of prediction markets is not new," he said. Financial markets have long enabled investors to price uncertainty through a variety of hedging tools. What prediction markets add, he said, is a wider range of outcomes that can be priced.

Plaee is a business-to-business prediction-market infrastructure startup founded last year. It provides the infrastructure companies need to build their own prediction-market platforms. The company offers an integrated package spanning the front-end trading experience, back-office operations and compliance infrastructure. Okun said the turnkey service helps companies enter prediction markets quickly while retaining control over their brand, customers and revenue model.

Building services on top of an existing prediction-market platform can ultimately leave a company dependent on another operator's ecosystem, Okun said. In some cases, that could mean competing for the same market share. He added that incumbent platforms are primarily focused on expanding their own marketplaces, not helping clients build differentiated standalone businesses.

Regulatory Debate at Home and Abroad: 'It Must Be Built In From the Planning Stage'

Prediction markets have grown rapidly since last year, becoming a source of controversy in both South Korea and the US. According to CoinGecko, monthly global prediction-market notional volume climbed to $52.8 billion in June from $27.1 billion in January, nearly doubling in six months. Global notional volume for the second quarter surpassed $110 billion, the highest quarterly total on record.

Some US state governments, including those of Nevada and Michigan, argue prediction markets are closer to illegal gambling. Platforms including Kalshi are therefore continuing legal battles with some state governments in the US. In South Korea, the Korea Communications Standards Commission blocked domestic access to global prediction-market platform Polymarket last month.

Okun said the situation shows prediction-market regulation is not something companies can put off until later and should be incorporated from the planning stage. He added that as regulators' approach to prediction markets continues to evolve, he hopes the markets will eventually operate within regulatory frameworks in every market, including South Korea.

Okun's view is that prediction markets should be seen as a "peer-to-peer financial market." Participants are not betting against a house or bookmaker that sets the odds, he said. Instead, they trade directly with other investors through an exchange, with prices determined by the levels at which market participants are actually willing to buy and sell.

'The Next Three Years Will Be Interesting' as Plaee Prepares More Partnership Announcements

Plaee entered into a strategic partnership earlier this year with Crypto.com to minimize regulatory risk. Crypto.com was among the companies that moved quickly to secure a license to offer prediction markets under Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight, Okun said. Through the partnership, Plaee can help clients use prediction-market infrastructure that complies with CFTC rules and enter the market through a more streamlined process.

He projected global prediction-market volume will reach $1 trillion by 2030. The industry has grown at a striking pace, with monthly notional volume rising 130-fold over the past two years. Okun said the next three years will clearly be a very interesting period.

He added that Plaee plans to announce partnerships in the coming months with a variety of companies, including media, trading firms and financial-information platforms. Prediction markets are no longer a market that draws interest only from a specific type of operator, he said.