AI Growth Case Holds Despite Rate Volatility as Kospi Eyes Foothold at 7,000: Weekly Outlook

Brokerages expect the Kospi to fluctuate around the 7,000 level this week, from Sept. 14 to Sept. 18. On Friday, Sept. 11, the benchmark index closed at 6,909.91, down 124.01 points, or 1.76%, from the previous session.

NH Investment & Securities said on Sept. 13 that it expects the Kospi to trade in a 6,400 to 7,400 range this week. It cited the impact of the Astra artificial intelligence model as an upside driver and the possibility of further gains in market interest rates as a downside risk.

Lee Sang-jun, an analyst at the brokerage, said investors should pay attention to changes in the AI industry even amid elevated rate volatility. OpenAI's next-generation model, GPT-6 Astra, posted the highest scores on FrontierMath Tier 4, the toughest math evaluation, and ARC-AGI-3, a test of general reasoning ability.

What has fueled assessments that the model is drawing closer to AGI, in particular, is a sharp improvement in its Computer Use capability. The model can now operate a computer with a mouse and keyboard like a human. That suggests AI's range of applications could broaden and the overall AI market could grow further.

The brokerage said the Kospi's brief recovery of the 7,000 level last week, led by semiconductor shares on the Astra effect despite heightened sensitivity to rates, shows the broader framework remains intact. That is, the AI industry's advance and the resulting benefits for the Korean market are still firmly in place. It advised investors to distinguish between short-term volatility driven by external risks and actual damage to fundamentals.

Lee Kyung-min, an analyst at Daishin Securities, said OpenAI's unveiling of GPT-6 Astra has highlighted the possibility of reaching AGI capable of performing a wide range of human-level tasks rather than being confined to specific jobs. Expectations that stronger performance and broader usability will lead to greater token consumption have also renewed momentum for AI infrastructure investment.

The most important event next week is the US Federal Open Market Committee's September meeting. Lee Sang-jun said the direction of the US 30-year Treasury yield after the meeting will matter more than the policy-rate decision itself, particularly given the dot plot and remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. He added that investors should leave open the possibility of an upward revision to the dot plot.

Futures markets have already priced in three additional rate increases through next year. At the July meeting, three members dissented in favor of a rate hike, unlike the unanimous decision to hold rates steady in June. With geopolitical risks in the Middle East, another factor that could push rates higher, still unresolved, volatility in rates could continue even after the FOMC meeting.

Policy meetings by the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England are also scheduled. Lee Kyung-min said the BOE is more likely to keep rates unchanged, while the BOJ is more likely to raise them. A BOJ hike could strengthen the yen and lift Japanese government bond yields, pushing sovereign yields higher across major economies and stoking concerns about an unwind of yen carry trades. That, he said, could amplify short-term volatility in the Korean stock market.

He added that once major monetary-policy events pass, they could mark a turning point for easing or resolving policy uncertainty. Against that backdrop, he said valuation normalization is likely to continue through rotation into sectors that remain undervalued relative to earnings, while semiconductor shares retain market leadership on AI momentum.

Lee Su, Hankyung.com reporter 2su@hankyung.com