Polymarket, Kalshi Odds of CLARITY Act Passage Rise to Highest in Weeks
Summary
- Ahead of U.S. Senate floor consideration of the CLARITY Act, major prediction markets have raised their odds of the bill's passage to the highest level in weeks.
- On Polymarket, the probability that the CLARITY Act will pass this year rose to 30% from 12% in early September, the highest since early August.
- On Kalshi, the probability that the CLARITY Act will pass before October 1, 2027, briefly surged as high as 64% and is now holding around 53%.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
The odds of the CLARITY Act passing have climbed to their highest level in weeks across major prediction markets as the U.S. Senate prepares for an initial procedural vote to begin floor consideration of the bill.
CoinDesk reported on September 14 that Polymarket traders now see a 30% chance of the CLARITY Act passing this year. That is up sharply from 12% in early September and marks the highest level since early August.
On Kalshi, the probability that the CLARITY Act will pass before October 1, 2027, jumped from 26% on September 10 to as high as 64% at one point.
Kalshi's implied probability currently stands at about 53%. Both Polymarket and Kalshi have recently priced in a higher likelihood of the bill's passage.
JH Kim
reporter1@bloomingbit.ioHi, I'm a Bloomingbit reporter, bringing you the latest cryptocurrency news.