Wall Street Banks Watch Warsh for Signals on Further Fed Tightening

Major Wall Street banks are closely watching what signals Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will send on the possibility of further tightening ahead of the Fed’s rate decision.

Walter Bloomberg reported on September 16 that Barclays expects Warsh to maintain a hawkish message, highlighting solid growth, a labor market near full employment and still-elevated inflation. Citi, UBS and Nomura expect limited guidance on the future path of interest rates.

Goldman Sachs projects that the Fed will likely want to review several rounds of inflation data before deciding on any additional steps. BMO likewise expects the central bank to characterize the latest rate increase as a risk-management move aimed at avoiding steeper tightening later, while stopping short of giving a clear view on whether further hikes will follow.

Bank of America said markets could price in more than 100 basis points of additional tightening if Warsh signals consecutive rate increases. A more dovish message, however, could undermine confidence in the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Deutsche Bank and TD are also focused on the possibility of further tightening, with the tone of Warsh’s remarks seen as a key variable in assessing the future path of rates.