Bitcoin Reclaims $80,000 Despite Fed Rate Hike, Senate Procedural Setback for CLARITY Act: Trade Now

Bitcoin has climbed back above $80,000 despite the failure of a procedural vote in the U.S. Senate on the CLARITY Act, a market-structure bill for digital assets, and a fresh Federal Reserve rate increase. Expectations that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission will continue rulemaking regardless of congressional action, together with lower oil prices, appear to have helped revive sentiment. Analysts say a break above the $81,600 to $83,000 range could determine whether the rally extends.

As of 11:23 a.m. on Sept. 19, Bitcoin was trading at $81,378 on Binance's USDT market, up about 6% from a day earlier. On Upbit, it was trading at the equivalent of about $83,200. The kimchi premium, which measures the gap between domestic and offshore exchange prices, stood at negative 1.06%.

Stocks and Crypto Rebound Despite Iran Escalation Fears and Renewed U.S. Tightening

U.S. stocks and digital assets are rebounding despite tighter U.S. monetary policy and concerns that the war involving Iran could drag on. Inflation worries have eased somewhat as international oil prices pulled back from this week's highs, while investors focus on resilient U.S. economic data and corporate earnings. Even so, long-term yield pressure remains, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbing back toward 5%.

President Donald Trump told Axios in a Sept. 17 interview that a “major decision” was approaching on the Iran war, indicating he must decide whether to resume a large-scale attack on the Iranian regime. He did not specify when that decision would be made. He is scheduled to meet leaders of six Gulf nations, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, on Sept. 22 to discuss the war. With Washington leaving open the possibility of renewed large-scale military action, uncertainty over the Middle East and oil prices is set to persist.

Earlier, on Sept. 16, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points at its September Federal Open Market Committee meeting, setting the target range at 3.75% to 4.00%. It was the first rate increase since July 2023, following a pause of three years and two months. The Fed said inflation remained elevated, and its updated dot plot showed that 16 of 18 officials who submitted projections expected another rate increase this year.

Markets are now focused less on the hike itself than on the scale and pace of further tightening. The median year-end federal funds rate projection in the new dot plot rose to 4.1%. Concerns persist that if inflation and employment remain firm and Middle East-driven oil gains continue, the Fed could keep policy restrictive for longer.

Still, risk assets have gained some breathing room as crude prices retreat from this week's peak. Investors are watching whether the Iran conflict widens, how oil prices move and whether the prospect of additional Fed hikes pushes long-term yields higher again.

Bitcoin ETF Flows Diverge as Aggressive Spot Buying Still Hasn't Arrived

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds posted net outflows of $462.7 million last week. Outflows continued to dominate this week, though the funds returned to net inflows on Sept. 17, suggesting the pace of capital leaving the sector has eased somewhat.

The Senate's failed procedural vote on the CLARITY Act was a short-term negative, but some analysts say it does not amount to a broader retreat in U.S. digital-asset regulatory discussions. Bitfire Research said additional progress in Congress this year will not come easily, but the bill remains on the legislative agenda. The firm added that the SEC and CFTC could still provide some regulatory clarity through rulemaking under their existing authority.

Even so, there are still few clear signs that regulatory optimism is translating into fresh inflows. According to Glassnode, stablecoin market capitalization stands at about $301 billion, roughly 4% below its April peak. Net Bitcoin buying by publicly traded companies has also slowed sharply, totaling only about 5,900 BTC over the past three months. Glassnode said new liquidity has not built up enough yet, leaving spot demand too weak to support a further move higher.

In derivatives markets, dip-buying is emerging, but spot demand remains soft. Bitfinex said Bitcoin futures open interest is recovering and buyers are stepping in on declines. By contrast, the Coinbase premium, a gauge of U.S. spot demand, has become more negative, suggesting aggressive spot buying has yet to arrive in force.

Bitcoin Back Above $80,000 as $83,000 Emerges as Next Key Test

From a technical standpoint, the supply zone in the low-$80,000s is the first hurdle for further gains. If Bitcoin turns lower again, support around $73,000 and the $70,000 threshold will likely determine whether the recent recovery can continue.

Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said Bitcoin's short-term supply-demand structure has not broken down materially despite the Fed's rate increase. A rebound toward $82,000 may come relatively easily, but above that level the market may need a new external catalyst for further gains. If resistance in the $82,000 area gives way, the next upside target could be around $94,000. He added that short-term profit-taking pressure could emerge, potentially delaying a broader push higher until next week.

Market analyst Julien Pineda said $81,600 marks a key resistance level where the recent high was formed, and a break above it could establish a clearer uptrend. On the downside, he sees a high likelihood of a short-term rebound around $73,600 if a pullback develops. A break below the key $70,000 support zone could undermine the recent recovery and increase bearish pressure in the coming weeks.

Over the medium term, a move above $83,000 is emerging as the dividing line for further gains. Coinbase Research said that if Bitcoin can establish itself above that level, the odds of a retest of $90,000 would increase. If it is rejected again at $83,000, however, a pullback toward $71,000 could follow. A break below $70,000 would heighten the risk of further losses.

Kang Min-seung, Bloomingbit reporter minriver@bloomingbit.io