Bitcoin Reclaims $81,000; Bearish Case May Weaken if It Holds Above 50-Week Average Into Weekly Close

Bitcoin has reclaimed the $81,000 level and is trading above a key long-term trend line. With the market still in the weekend session, analysts say whether it can hold that range through the weekly close may determine the next move.

On Sept. 19, cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen wrote on X, formerly Twitter, that Bitcoin is in a rebound phase after plunging following a golden cross. A higher high and a weekly close above the 50-week moving average would significantly weaken the bear-market case, he said.

Bitcoin was trading at about $81,255. The 50-week moving average stood at roughly $78,785, putting Bitcoin about 3% above that level. Because it was Saturday, holding that range through the weekly close remains the key test.

Cowen said a drop from current levels back below the 50-week moving average would instead align with the existing bear-market view. More than the short-term rebound itself, the more important signal is whether Bitcoin can establish itself above a major trend line on a weekly basis.

Cowen also pushed back against claims that Bitcoin's four-year cycle has already broken down. He said cycle lows do not form at precisely the same point every time, and argued it is too early to declare the historical pattern broken given that Bitcoin has previously fallen below the 200-week moving average in the second half of U.S. midterm election years.

He added that, historically, buying in tranches through the second half of midterm election years had been a relatively effective strategy, rather than trying to pick the exact bottom.