Bitcoin Trend Reversal Put to the Test as ETF Demand Faces Rate Pressure

Bitcoin fell back below $84,000 after climbing past $86,000, testing whether a trend reversal can hold, Binance Research said. With U.S. Treasury yields above 5%, the key question is whether inflows into spot exchange-traded funds can sustain a price recovery.

In a weekly report released on Sept. 29, Binance Research said ETF demand and improving trend indicators are supporting the rebound, but stronger expectations for additional rate hikes could halt the advance. Its view remains positive, but conditional, the report said.

According to the report, Bitcoin rose above $86,000 and hit an eight-month high after absorbing a 25-basis-point rate increase by the Federal Reserve and the failure of a vote on the CLARITY Act. It then slipped below $84,000 as strong U.S. economic data and higher oil prices revived expectations for tighter policy.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury recently climbed to 5.17%, the highest since 2007. The probability of another rate hike in October has also risen to about 70%. Binance Research said rising long-term Treasury yields, rather than the Fed's policy move itself, have become Bitcoin's main macro headwind.

Demand in the spot market has continued. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $999 million on Sept. 21. That was the largest daily net inflow this year and the biggest since Oct. 6, 2025. Net inflows continued even as Treasury yields rose, returning cumulative ETF flows for the year to positive territory.

Technical indicators have also improved. Bitcoin posted a weekly close of $81,159 on Sept. 20, ending above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks since Nov. 9, 2025. Binance Research said whether Bitcoin holds that level during any further pullback will be a key gauge of whether a trend reversal is taking hold.

A so-called golden cross also formed on Sept. 8, when the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average. The 50-day average had remained below the 200-day average for the prior 293 days. Binance Research said that in 12 previous cases in which a golden cross formed after the 50-day average had stayed below the 200-day average for at least 150 days, Bitcoin later recorded peak gains of about 100% to 600% over the following year. The firm added that the sample is small and the periods overlap, making it difficult to treat the pattern as a direct price signal.

Binance Research said upcoming inflation and employment data will determine whether Bitcoin's rebound can continue. A lower-than-expected core personal consumption expenditures price index reading could ease rate pressure. Strong inflation and labor data, however, could again raise expectations for additional rate hikes.