Bitcoin Up 7% in September, Poised to Break Decade-Long Pattern of August Gains Followed by September Losses

Bitcoin (BTC) has risen about 7% in September, increasing the odds of breaking a seasonal weak spell that has persisted for more than a decade.

CoinDesk reported on September 29 that Bitcoin has added about 7% this month after climbing 25% in August.

Since 2013, every year in which Bitcoin posted gains in August has been followed by a decline in September, according to CoinDesk. With two days left in the month, that streak would be broken for the first time if the current rally holds.

Bitcoin is also on course for three consecutive monthly gains from July through September. Its third-quarter advance is set to top 40%, which would mark its first positive quarterly return since the third quarter of last year.

The fourth quarter has historically been Bitcoin's strongest period. CoinGlass data show the cryptocurrency has posted an average gain of about 77% in the fourth quarter.

Still, the macroeconomic backdrop remains a headwind. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note was above 5.2%, while the MOVE Index, a gauge of bond-market volatility, climbed above 100 and neared its highest level of the year. International oil prices also held above $90 a barrel, stoking inflation concerns.

In November, markets are also set to face the possibility of Anthropic's initial public offering and the U.S. midterm elections. CoinDesk said those events could test liquidity and risk appetite in the fourth quarter.