Kalshi’s US Political Gauge Hits Democrats +3.8, Highest This Year, 36 Days Before Midterms
Summary
- Kalshi’s prediction market American Power Index (KPOW) showed Democrats at +3.8, the party’s strongest advantage this year.
- The gauge reflects 75% future election expectations and 25% the current balance of power to show whether Democrats or Republicans hold the advantage.
- The index shifted quickly toward Democrats in September, and the U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for Nov. 3.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
With 36 days remaining until the U.S. midterm elections, the political balance tracked by prediction market Kalshi has swung sharply in Democrats’ favor.
Walter Bloomberg, an overseas markets news account, reported on September 29 that Kalshi’s American Power Index, or KPOW, stood at Democrats +3.8. That is the strongest Democratic advantage recorded this year.
The index combines the current makeup of Congress with election expectations reflected in Kalshi’s prediction market to show whether Democrats or Republicans hold the upper hand. It assigns a 75% weight to future election expectations and 25% to the current balance of power.
The gauge has shifted quickly toward Democrats in September. The U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for Nov. 3.
Minseung Kang
minriver@bloomingbit.ioBlockchain journalist | Writer of Trade Now & Altcoin Now, must-read content for investors.