Bitcoin Tests $82,500 Support as Oil Prices May Sway Odds of an October Fed Rate Hike

Whether Bitcoin can hold the $82,500 level it recently broke above will be a key market variable this week, according to crypto market maker Wintermute. The firm also said moves in international oil prices could shape expectations for an additional Federal Reserve rate hike in October.

On September 29, Wintermute wrote on X that $82,500 had blocked Bitcoin's advance for weeks. If the token holds that range, a weekly close above the 50-week moving average for the first time since last November could establish a new support base. A close back below that level, by contrast, would undermine the validity of the recent breakout.

Institutional money continues to flow in. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds posted net inflows of $999 million on Monday last week alone, but the pace of inflows slowed each day afterward and fell below $150 million by Friday.

Wintermute's own trading showed net selling pressure in Bitcoin. The main driver was retail investors taking profits in Bitcoin and rotating funds into altcoins. Even so, the firm said the recent rise in altcoins had become overly broad, suggesting attention may later shift back to major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.

On the macro front, Wintermute identified international oil prices as the most important variable. If Brent crude holds near $100 a barrel or above, markets would likely price in a high probability of another rate hike in October. The firm said developments related to the Strait of Hormuz could have a bigger impact on the crypto market this week than individual economic indicators.

Wintermute added that even if the altcoin rally continues, Bitcoin must confirm the move with further gains for the current trend to be sustained. Bitcoin needs to resume rising and generate fresh money for the market for rotation into altcoins to continue.