Barclays Says US 30-Year Treasury Yield Could Hit 6% if AI Investment Boom Persists
JH Kim
Summary
- Barclays said the US 30-year Treasury yield could rise to 6% if the artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom persists.
- The bank said expanding AI investment could keep US productivity and economic growth at elevated levels.
- That could lead markets to raise their outlook for the Federal Reserve's long-term policy rate, increasing upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Barclays said the yield on 30-year US Treasuries could rise to 6% if an artificial intelligence investment boom continues to lift US productivity.
Walter Bloomberg reported on September 29 that Barclays sees sustained AI investment as a force that could keep US productivity rising and economic growth strong.
In that scenario, markets could lift their estimates for the Federal Reserve's long-term policy rate, putting additional upward pressure on long-dated Treasury yields.
The 30-year US Treasury yield has already risen above 5.61%, its highest level since 2002.
JH Kim
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