Who Holds the Leash on Anthropic? Leverage in Treasuries Can Magnify Yield Swings: What to Watch Before the Open

1. Softer-Than-Expected PCE Inflation Eases Pressure for Further Fed Tightening

U.S. inflation data for August came in below market expectations. In particular, a larger-than-expected slowdown in core prices, the measure most closely watched by the Federal Reserve, reduced the odds of another rate increase in October.

The Commerce Department said on September 30 that the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.3% from a month earlier and 3.4% from a year earlier in August. Economists had expected gains of 0.3% on the month and 3.7% on the year. The monthly reading matched forecasts, but the annual rate came in below expectations.

The core PCE price index, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.2% from a month earlier and 3.0% from a year earlier. Markets had expected increases of 0.3% and 3.3%, respectively. Both the monthly and annual readings were below forecasts.

The Fed formally references headline PCE inflation. For monetary policy decisions, however, it places greater weight on core PCE because the measure is intended to capture the underlying inflation trend by stripping out temporary swings in food and energy prices.

The latest figures also reflected changes by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to the way some categories are calculated. It was not immediately clear how much that adjustment affected the final readings.

2. Hedge Funds Become Bigger Players in Treasuries, but Leverage Is a Risk

Hedge funds are rapidly expanding their presence in the roughly $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market. They are helping absorb large volumes of government debt issuance, but heavy leverage could also amplify market volatility.

According to the Office of Financial Research, a U.S. Treasury Department unit, hedge funds' cash Treasury holdings reached $2 trillion at the end of 2025, nearly triple the level of five years earlier. Their share of the $28.9 trillion stock of marketable Treasuries climbed to a record 7%.

Hedge funds typically use basis trades, buying cash Treasuries while selling Treasury futures. The strategy seeks to profit from small price gaps between the two markets. Because those spreads are thin, funds borrow against Treasuries to increase the size of the trades, and some are known to use leverage of more than 20 times equity.

The problem comes when Treasury prices fall sharply or volatility rises. If financial firms demand additional collateral, hedge funds may be forced to sell Treasuries quickly or unwind positions. If that selling hits the market all at once, Treasury prices could fall further and yields could rise even faster.

If heavier Treasury supply and inflation concerns are the spark behind rising yields, a disorderly unwind of leveraged basis trades could be the wind that fans the flames.

3. U.S. Stocks Hold Up Despite High Rates as Bulls and Bears Clash

Bullish and bearish views remain sharply divided over the direction of the S&P 500.

BTIG argued that weakening market breadth supports the bearish case. The S&P 500 has changed little over the past five weeks, but the median stock has fallen 4.5%. The implication is that a handful of large technology stocks are holding up the index even as the broader market weakens.

Mid-cap stocks have already fallen below their 200-day moving average and are down more than 8% from recent highs. Wider credit spreads and a surge in Treasury trading volumes are also being read as signs that caution toward risk assets is building.

The bullish case remains substantial as well. Because the U.S. economy is heavily centered on services, the impact of high rates spreads more slowly than it does in manufacturing or housing. At the same time, baby boomers with sizable asset holdings are benefiting from higher interest income as rates rise.

Continued AI investment and the lack of a clear large-scale alternative to the U.S. as an investment destination are also supporting equities. JPMorgan Asset Management said money from banks, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and insurers in Asia and the Gulf region is playing an increasingly important role in financing U.S. AI infrastructure.

4. Power Supply and Safety Controls Are at the Center of the AI Race

Tesla and SpaceX Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and Nvidia Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang said securing power supply and maintaining safety controls are critical to U.S. competitiveness in artificial intelligence.

Huang described data centers not as simple storage facilities but as “AI factories” that produce economic value. Expanding AI model training and services will require more than semiconductors. It will also require investment in power plants, transmission grids, cooling facilities, pipelines and construction infrastructure.

Musk said power-generation capacity will be a key long-term battleground in the AI race with China. Because China’s electricity-generating capacity exceeds that of the U.S., America also needs to move quickly to expand generation and transmission infrastructure.

AI safety has also emerged as a major issue. Systems are needed to isolate AI agents so they do not exceed permitted boundaries, monitor their behavior in real time, and issue immediate warnings or blocks if problems emerge.

5. OpenAI Delays IPO, Seeks at Least $30 Billion in Fresh Funding

OpenAI is seeking at least $30 billion in new funding while delaying an initial public offering. Its target valuation is about $140 billion before the new capital is raised.

Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman has said the company does not plan to go public this year. The company appears to view the short-term pressure of earnings and share-price performance as an added burden at a time when stronger safety standards for advanced AI still need to be established.

OpenAI decided not to release its latest model, GPT-6.1 Astra, because it failed to meet internal safety standards. At the same time, the company unveiled an AI agent called Dots at a developer event. The system is designed to continue handling complex tasks without waiting for user instructions.

It also introduced a new premium plan priced at $500 a month. OpenAI said demand is emerging among small businesses and individual users willing to pay more if AI can improve work performance.

6. Anthropic’s Growth Deepens Its Reliance on Amazon and Google

Anthropic generated $2.16 billion, or 47% of its total revenue last year, through Amazon and Google cloud platforms.

Amazon and Google are investors in Anthropic. They also supply computing resources, serve as sales channels for Claude and compete directly in AI. Anthropic can use those platforms to win enterprise customers quickly, but that also leaves revenue, payment collection and computing supply concentrated among a small number of companies.

Anthropic paid roughly 16 cents in fees for every dollar of revenue generated through cloud marketplaces. OpenAI has criticized that revenue-recognition approach, saying that treating those payments as costs can make the underlying size of the business appear larger than it is.

7. Micron Results Will Test How Long the AI Memory Boom Can Last

Micron will report earnings after the close on September 30. Investor focus is likely to center less on the quarterly figures themselves and more on management’s outlook for whether demand for AI memory will remain strong.

Markets expect Micron to have posted $51.5 billion in revenue and $36 billion in net income for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026. That would mark increases of more than 350% in revenue and more than 1,000% in profit from a year earlier.

Revenue growth is expected to slow from here. The memory industry has long followed a familiar cycle in which prices and profitability improve quickly when demand is strong, only to slump sharply once supply starts to expand.

Micron shares have risen 273% this year, the fourth-best performance among S&P 500 members. Even so, the stock remains 12% below its June peak, suggesting the market is still cautious about how long the AI memory boom will last.

New York = Park Shin-young, Hankyung.com correspondent nyusos@hankyung.com