US August Payroll Gain of 162,000 May Have Been Overstated by Seasonal Adjustments
JH Kim
Summary
- U.S. August nonfarm employment rose by 162,000, but the gain may have appeared stronger than it actually was because of seasonal adjustments.
- On an unadjusted basis, August employment increased by 154,000, a level similar to 2025, and applying the same seasonal adjustment factor used last year would put the gain at about 15,000.
- That has prompted analysis that the headline August employment data may have limited use as a benchmark for judging September labor-market trends.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000 in August, but favorable seasonal adjustments may have made the increase look stronger than it actually was.
Walter Bloomberg reported on October 1 that unadjusted U.S. employment rose by 154,000 in August, a level similar to 2025.
If the same seasonal adjustment factor used last year were applied, the August employment gain would be estimated at about 15,000.
That suggests the headline August employment figure may have limited value as a benchmark for assessing September labor-market trends.
JH Kim
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