XRP Rises for First Straight Three-Month Quarter, Gains More Than 43% in Q3
Summary
- XRP rose for three straight months in the third quarter, lifting its cumulative gain to more than 43%.
- Exchange-held XRP fell from about 12.9 billion XRP to roughly 11 billion XRP, a move interpreted as a sign of shrinking supply.
- XRP's historical average October return of -4.71%, its average fourth-quarter return of 13.3%, and future spot XRP ETF fund flows and Fed monetary policy are key variables.
Forecast Trend Report by Period



XRP logged monthly gains throughout an entire quarter for the first time on record. The token rose more than 43% in the third quarter alone, drawing attention to whether it can extend that momentum into the fourth quarter.
Crypto data platform CryptoRank said on October 2 that XRP rose 2% in July, 30% in August and 7.95% in September. With positive returns in all three months, its cumulative gain for the third quarter exceeded 43%.
This marks the first time XRP has ended all three months of a quarter higher. It has recorded gains for a full quarter before, but those periods still included at least one down month.
From a supply perspective, the decline in XRP held on exchanges stands out. Exchange holdings fell from about 12.9 billion XRP in April to roughly 11 billion XRP recently. A drop in exchange balances is typically interpreted as a sign that the supply available for immediate selling is shrinking.
Seasonally, however, October has been a weak month for XRP. Based on CryptoRank data, XRP's average October return is about negative 4.71%. It also ended October lower in both 2024 and 2025.
By contrast, the average return for the fourth quarter as a whole is about 13.3%. Because XRP has tended to perform relatively strongly in November and December, the key question is whether its third-quarter advance can continue through year-end.
XRP's price will likely be influenced by changes in exchange balances, demand from institutional investors, fund flows into spot XRP exchange-traded funds and Federal Reserve monetary policy.
YM Lee
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