Bitcoin Down 32% From Record High, but Slump Remains Milder Than Past Bear Markets

Bitcoin has fallen about 32% in the year since reaching a record high, but both the size of the decline and the length of the correction have been relatively mild compared with past bear markets, according to an analysis.

CoinDesk, a cryptocurrency-focused media outlet, reported on October 6 that Bitcoin rose above $126,000 on October 6, 2025, to set an all-time high. It has since retreated to about $85,453, a drop of roughly 32%.

Compared with previous cycles, the decline has been much smaller. One year after its 2013 peak, Bitcoin was down 69.7%. After the 2017 top, it had fallen 82.3%, and following the 2021 peak, it dropped 74.6%.

The maximum drawdown in the current bear market has also been smaller than in earlier downturns. Bitcoin fell below $59,000 on June 30, leaving it down more than 53% from its peak. In past bear markets, declines from the top ranged from 77% to 85%.

“The most notable change in this cycle is that the downturn has become much shorter, and the time spent near the bottom has also decreased,” Tim Sun, senior research analyst at HashKey Group, said. In earlier cycles, retail investors and leveraged trading drove bull markets. This time, a larger share of flows has come from institutions, including spot exchange-traded funds, asset managers, family offices and companies.

Griffin Ardern, co-founder of Primitive Fund, said ETF money is structurally inclined to buy on price declines to maintain target allocations, making institutional inflows different from the retail-driven market of the past. A sharp reduction in leverage after large-scale liquidations in October 2025 was also cited as a factor limiting rapid cascading liquidations.

Still, lower volatility may also mean more muted gains than in the past. Jeff Anderson, head of U.S. at STS Digital, said realized volatility will decline as more participants enter the Bitcoin market. That means drawdowns may become smaller while upside peaks may also be lower.

Bitcoin’s annualized volatility is now about 40%, well below its long-term historical average of more than 80%. Ardern also warned that the bear market could deepen again if yields on 30-year U.S. Treasuries rise further. The 30-year Treasury yield recently climbed to 5.7%, the highest level since 2002.