US Early Voting Accelerates as Democrats Raise Share of Mail-Ballot Requests

As early voting expands ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, Democrats in some states are making up a larger share of mail-ballot requests than they did two years ago. Prediction markets are also putting the odds of Democrats winning both chambers of Congress above 60%.

The Associated Press and other outlets reported on October 7 that more than 1 million people had already cast ballots across 30 U.S. states as of October 6. Voters are casting ballots either in person before Election Day or by mail. The election is a key turning point that will shape the Trump administration's ability to push its agenda over the next two years.

CNN reported that Democrats accounted for 67% of voters who had requested mail ballots in Iowa as of October 1. That was 13 percentage points higher than 54% at the same point in 2024. Similar trends were seen in Maine, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Virginia. Still, the share of mail-ballot requests does not necessarily translate into turnout or vote share.

On prediction-market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, the odds of Democrats taking both the Senate and the House are above 60%. That reflects expectations that the party could not only retake the House but also secure a Senate majority. In the Senate, outcomes in battleground states including Texas, Kansas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Michigan are key variables.

Last month's surge in energy prices and shifting support among some Hispanic voters are being cited as factors behind the trend favoring Democrats. Higher diesel prices have increased cost burdens for truckers, farmers and small-business owners. Discontent over immigration and economic policy has also become a burden for Republicans, according to that analysis.

Still, it is too early to call the outcome. Oil prices have eased recently, and President Donald Trump has expanded campaign appearances in support of Republican candidates. Any shift in voter sentiment during the remaining campaign period, along with actual turnout among each party's supporters, will determine the final result.