Summary
- The Pentagon has instructed Central Command to complete preparations for the resumption of a large-scale military operation against Iran.
- Axios said that if operations resume, they could involve large-scale bombing of Iran's energy facilities, infrastructure, and nuclear-related targets, and that a resulting rise in oil prices could affect the U.S. midterm elections.
- An Israeli official said the likelihood of a resumption of large-scale operations against Iran would rise significantly after the U.S. midterm elections, and that if operations resume, the two countries' militaries would likely take part together.
Forecast Trend Report by Period



The Pentagon has instructed U.S. Central Command to complete preparations for the resumption of a large-scale military operation against Iran, Axios reported. The timing of any attack has not been set, and President Donald Trump has not made a final decision.
Axios reported on October 7, citing U.S. officials, that the order was issued several days ago. U.S. and Israeli sources said the operation could resume before next month's U.S. midterm elections or before Israel's election a week earlier.
If the operation resumes, it would include large-scale bombing of Iran's energy facilities, infrastructure and nuclear-related targets, the sources said. Axios said a renewed escalation in the next three to four weeks could also affect the U.S. midterm elections by driving up oil prices. A Defense Department official said the Pentagon's role is to prepare military options for the president.
Trump's national security team met for several hours at Camp David on October 2 to discuss the war and diplomatic issues. An Israeli official said a resumption of large-scale operations against Iran was also on the agenda. By contrast, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said after the meeting that the focus was on long-term foreign policy planning.
Talks between the U.S. and Iran have shown no progress. Qatar, which has been mediating, is awaiting Iran's response to a revised U.S. proposal seeking nuclear-related concessions. Another Israeli official said a resumption before the elections was not highly likely, though it could not be ruled out. The official added that the chances would rise significantly after the U.S. midterm elections.
Trump also spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on October 7, their second call in recent days. A U.S. official said the conversation commemorated the victims of the October 7, 2023, attack. According to the Israeli side, Netanyahu discussed Iran with his national security team before the call, and if operations resume, the two countries' militaries would likely take part together.
Israeli officials also raised the possibility that Iran could launch a preemptive strike out of concern over another surprise attack. Axios said Iranian retaliatory missile strikes or a broader escalation could also affect Israel's election and might work to Netanyahu's political advantage in the final stretch of the campaign.
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