Summary
- The prediction market platform Kalshi showed an 84% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold its benchmark interest rate unchanged in October.
- The probability that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage point in October was 16%.
- Kalshi is currently assigning a higher probability to a rate hold than to a rate hike.
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, is pricing in an 84% chance that the Federal Reserve will leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged in October. The odds of a 0.25 percentage-point increase stand at 16%.
As of October 8, market participants on Kalshi were assigning an 84% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady at its Oct. 28 meeting.
By contrast, the probability of a 0.25 percentage-point rate increase was 16%.
For now, Kalshi assigns higher odds to a hold than to a rate hike. Those figures can change as trading on the prediction market shifts.
JH Kim
reporter1@bloomingbit.ioHi, I'm a Bloomingbit reporter, bringing you the latest cryptocurrency news.