Five Forces Shaking New York Stocks: OpenAI Revenue Debate, Apple’s 15% Parts Cut and More [Park Shin-young’s Before the Bell]

1. OpenAI annualized revenue closer to $50 billion, not $70 billion?

AI-related technology stocks slid after reports said OpenAI’s annualized revenue was coming in below earlier market estimates. The discrepancy in how OpenAI and Anthropic calculate revenue also raised questions about the reliability of financial metrics at private AI companies.

Reuters and Bloomberg reported on October 8 that OpenAI recently told investors its annualized revenue was just under $50 billion as of the end of September. Earlier market estimates had put the figure near $70 billion.

The roughly $20 billion gap largely reflects different revenue-accounting methods. OpenAI counts revenue generated through cloud partners on a net basis, while Anthropic uses a gross method that books the full amount paid by customers as revenue.

For example, if a customer spends $100 through Amazon Web Services, Anthropic records the full $100 as revenue and treats payments to partners as costs. OpenAI, by contrast, does not include partner-driven sales in annualized revenue the same way.

That accounting difference matters when assessing business scale and profitability. Still, a different presentation of revenue does not necessarily mean cash inflows or profits differ by the same amount.

The market reaction reflected concern over AI infrastructure spending. OpenAI is seeking to raise more than $30 billion at a $1.4 trillion valuation. Its revenue growth outlook is also a key premise behind semiconductor supply from Nvidia and Broadcom, as well as Oracle’s data-center investment.

If uncertainty over revenue grows, doubts could also deepen over whether hundreds of billions of dollars in AI infrastructure spending can generate adequate returns.

Anthropic’s annualized revenue, meanwhile, topped $65 billion at the end of July and was projected to reach $100 billion by the end of this year.

2. SpaceX pushes into US wireless market directly; telecom shares tumble

Elon Musk’s SpaceX has agreed to acquire wireless spectrum licenses that can be used nationwide in the US. The move would extend Starlink beyond satellite internet and into the traditional telecom market. Shares of AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile each fell about 6% in after-hours trading.

CNBC reported that SpaceX signed a deal to buy nationwide 800-megahertz spectrum licenses from digital infrastructure investment firm Grain Management. The Wall Street Journal said the deal is worth about $8 billion.

The 800 MHz band is low-frequency spectrum that travels long distances and penetrates buildings well. The acquisition is significant because it gives SpaceX a foundation to offer mobile service directly without relying entirely on partnerships with incumbent carriers.

Until now, satellite communications have largely operated under a structure in which operators such as Starlink provide network capacity to carriers, which then sell services to customers. T-Mobile’s T-Satellite service is a leading example.

If SpaceX starts signing up subscribers directly, existing carriers would face a network supplier that is also becoming a competitor.

Still, some analysts argue SpaceX is unlikely to displace the three major wireless carriers anytime soon. Telecom industry expert Tim Farrar said the spectrum it has secured is limited and that reliable service in dense urban areas and inside buildings would still require terrestrial base stations.

That view helped lift shares of tower operators American Tower, Crown Castle and SBA Communications. SpaceX may need to lease ground towers as it builds out a nationwide mobile network.

3. US Treasury term premium hits highest since 2014, adding pressure on long-term yields

With US Treasury yields near their highest levels in 24 years, the term premium on longer-dated debt is rising sharply.

According to a model from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the term premium on the 10-year Treasury has climbed about 40 basis points since mid-September to 0.98%. That is the highest level since 2014.

The term premium is the extra compensation investors demand for holding long-term bonds instead of repeatedly buying short-dated debt. Even if expectations for future policy rates do not change, a rise in the term premium can push long-term Treasury yields higher.

What stands out in this latest move is that inflation expectations and the outlook for Federal Reserve policy have not shifted much. Investors appear to be demanding greater compensation for US fiscal deficits, rising Treasury supply and geopolitical uncertainty.

The US federal budget deficit stands at about $2 trillion, or roughly 6% of gross domestic product. At the same time, companies are increasing corporate bond issuance to fund investment in AI data centers, semiconductors and power infrastructure, adding to bond-market supply pressure.

Temporary supply-and-demand factors may also have played a role. Stress in the French government bond market, portfolio adjustments by global investors and rate-hedging activity by mortgage-backed securities investors may have amplified selling in Treasuries.

What worries Wall Street is the possibility that the rise in the term premium is not temporary but structural.

If the term premium remains elevated, borrowing costs for companies and households could keep rising even if the Fed does not raise rates further. In effect, the bond market would be tightening financial conditions on its own.

4. Citi quant team says this is like the late 1970s, urges selling US stocks

Citigroup’s quantitative strategy team recommended reducing exposure to US stocks and placing some bets on declines. The call reflects its view that the current market backdrop resembles the late 1970s.

The team’s macro model signals that the US economy has moved beyond the Goldilocks phase and is entering the later stage of the business cycle.

It cited two main reasons. One is tighter financial conditions driven by rising Treasury yields and heavier corporate bond supply. The other is that economic data are beating market expectations by a smaller margin.

Citi’s quant team therefore recommended shifting from a 4% overweight in equities to a 5% underweight. It also said investors should build a small short position in US stocks and favor emerging-market equities on a relative basis.

In the late 1970s, the comparison period cited by Citi, stocks rose as inflation initially cooled and economic activity remained resilient. They later turned lower after prices began accelerating again.

Views differ even within Citigroup. The bank’s US equity strategy team kept its year-end target for the S&P 500 at 8,100.

Given that the S&P 500 closed at 7,765 on October 8, that implies about 4% further upside.

The equity strategy team is more positive on corporate earnings and changes in Fed policy. The quant team, by contrast, sees rising risks from rates, financial conditions and the business cycle.

US stocks are still trading near record highs, but views on Wall Street are becoming increasingly divided over where the market goes next.

5. Apple reportedly cut iPhone 18 parts orders 15% a month after launch

Apple has reportedly scaled back some parts orders for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, which were launched last month.

Nikkei Asia reported that Apple told several suppliers to cut October parts orders by about 15% from the original plan. Weaker-than-expected demand was cited as the reason.

The iPhone 18 lineup posted strong early sales in China, but demand across the global market has been falling short of expectations, the report said.

The cut does not apply to all suppliers, and it remains unclear whether November orders will also be changed. Apple did not immediately comment on the report.

Morgan Stanley said in a report earlier this month that it had not seen meaningful supply-chain adjustments following the launch of the iPhone 18 Pro series. That report, however, was written before news of the parts-order reduction emerged.

Morgan Stanley maintained a positive view on Apple’s future product lineup. It said the slate of upcoming products is the most compelling in more than a decade.

Still, it did not raise its earnings forecasts. It kept its fiscal 2027 earnings-per-share estimate at about $10 and its fiscal 2028 estimate at about $11.

It lowered its price target to $355 from $360 to reflect uncertainty around the long-term profitability of Apple’s services business.

Apple shares fell about 2% in premarket trading on October 9. Investors are now watching whether the cut in parts orders is a temporary inventory adjustment or a sign of weaker demand for premium smartphones.

Park Shin-young, New York correspondent, Hankyung.com nyusos@hankyung.com