Trump Turns to Russian Diesel as Price Spike Shakes Voters Ahead of Midterms

Ahead of the midterms... pressuring Ukraine instead of Russia

U.S. agrees with Russia on 4.8 million tons of diesel supply

Zelenskiy says it is "a gift to Putin"

Trump: Don't hit Russian refineries

Floats replacing Ukraine's president

President Donald Trump said the U.S. would allow large volumes of Russian diesel, barred under international sanctions, to flow into the U.S. and global markets. The move is aimed at containing voter anger over high fuel prices ahead of next month’s midterm elections. He also pressed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to halt attacks on Russian refineries. The episode is raising concern that Trump’s political calculations tied to the midterms are affecting the course of the war in Ukraine.

Imports of Russian diesel allowed

Trump wrote in a social media post on October 9 that he had just concluded what he called a very successful discussion with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russia agreed to immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel fuel to the U.S. and global markets, followed by an additional 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons after that, he said. Russia would then provide another 3 million tons of diesel in the short term, depending on the condition of its refining facilities, he added. That would bring the total volume cited by Trump to 4.8 million tons. He also said U.S. control of the Strait of Hormuz and supplies of Russian energy would quickly drive down global diesel prices.

The Office of Foreign Assets Control, the U.S. Treasury Department's sanctions arm, later announced a temporary easing of sanctions on sales of Russian diesel. Treasury documents show transactions involving the sale, delivery, unloading and export to the U.S. of Russian diesel will be allowed until 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time on April 7, 2027. It marks the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 that the U.S. has reopened imports of Russian energy banned after the war began.

Ukraine pushed back sharply. Zelenskiy said the agreement was like a gift from Trump to Putin. Allowing Russia to sell petroleum products amounts to investing in prolonging a war that should be ended, he said. Shortly after the Treasury announcement, Ukraine launched an airstrike on a Russian oil terminal.

Trump then intensified pressure on Kyiv, even raising the possibility of replacing Zelenskiy. On October 10, Trump said the proposal to Ukraine was to install new leadership that could reach a peace deal. The war should never have started, and Ukraine may be ready for a new president, he said. He also said the U.S. could stop sharing key military intelligence if Ukraine does not halt its attacks on Russia. Steve Witkoff, the U.S. special envoy for the Middle East, delivered that message at talks with Ukraine in Miami on October 9, the Financial Times reported.

Effective in lowering diesel prices

The unusual U.S. pressure on Ukraine reflects concern tied to the midterm elections. Reuters reported that Trump is worried surging global diesel prices since the outbreak of the Iran war are turning fuel costs into a burden for Republicans ahead of next month’s vote.

U.S. diesel prices have jumped about 70% from before the Iran war began, adding heavily to household costs. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the spot price for New York Harbor ultra-low sulfur diesel, or ULSD, a benchmark for domestic diesel prices, climbed to a yearly high of $225.3 a barrel on September 16. It has slipped below $200 this month, but remains elevated.

An influx of Russian diesel into global markets stands to push prices down quickly for the time being. The Financial Times said a short-term increase of several hundred thousand tons in Russian diesel supply would probably squeeze refining margins first. Diesel prices fell about 4.5% immediately after Trump’s announcement, the newspaper said.

Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, a campaign Kyiv has pursued for months, could also ease under U.S. pressure. Russia banned diesel exports entirely earlier this year after its refining capacity weakened sharply. Reuters said that could loosen the economic pressure Ukraine had been trying to build on Russia through attacks on refining facilities.

Kim Dong-hyun, Hankyung.com reporter 3code@hankyung.com