Summary
- Walter Bloomberg reported that the median forecast for core CPI inflation in September was 0.21%, down from 0.29% in the previous month.
- Higher energy prices are expected to lift the median forecast for headline CPI inflation in September to 0.58% from a month earlier.
- The median forecasts for year-over-year headline CPI and core CPI, and for core PCE inflation, were 3.64%, 2.40%, and 0.21%, respectively.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
US core consumer inflation is projected to have slowed in September from the previous month. Still, higher energy prices are expected to push up the headline CPI reading.
Walter Bloomberg reported on October 12 that the median forecast compiled from major investment banks put September core CPI at 0.21% month over month, down from 0.29% in August. Headline CPI, by contrast, was projected to rise 0.58% on the month.
Bank forecasts for core CPI ranged from 0.16% at Deutsche Bank to 0.18% at Citigroup and JPMorgan, 0.19% at UBS, and 0.24% at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Estimates for headline CPI ranged from 0.55% at JPMorgan and Jefferies to 0.62% at Morgan Stanley.
The median estimates for year-over-year inflation were 3.64% for headline CPI and 2.40% for core CPI. The median forecast for month-over-month core personal consumption expenditures inflation was 0.21%.
The outlook points to easing core inflation pressure even as rising energy prices add to overall consumer-price pressure. The September US CPI report is due Wednesday.
JH Kim
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