Prediction Markets Price Nearly 90% Odds of Strategy’s MSCI Removal This Year

Prediction market odds that Bitcoin treasury company Strategy will be removed from MSCI indexes this year have climbed to as high as 90%. Bets surged after MSCI introduced new rules excluding non-operating companies from its indexes.

Prediction Position Platform data on October 15 showed Polymarket pricing a 90% chance of “yes” on whether Strategy will be removed from MSCI indexes by December 31. That was sharply higher than a day earlier.

The growing concern stems from a change in MSCI’s index inclusion rules. MSCI said it had adopted a new method that excludes non-operating companies from its Global Investable Market Indexes, or GIMI. It will first assess whether a company holds substantive operating assets. Companies that fail that test will then face a review of financial ratios. If they fall short on at least four of five metrics, their eligibility for index inclusion will be restricted.

Companies already in the index would be removed only if they are deemed ineligible based on their two most recent annual disclosures. MSCI plans to announce the final list on November 11 and apply the changes after the market closes on November 30.

If the removal goes ahead, funds tracking MSCI indexes may have to sell Strategy shares. That means selling pressure tied to index changes could emerge regardless of the company’s earnings or Bitcoin’s price.

The Bitcoin market could also feel the impact through Strategy’s funding channel. If weakness in the stock makes it harder for the company to raise capital, that could weigh on additional Bitcoin purchases.

Strategy had previously opposed the new rules while arguing that the direct impact would be limited. The company said funds tracking MSCI GIMI hold about 13 million of its shares, or 3.1% of its outstanding common stock. That is less than its average daily trading volume, it said.